US Dollar Resistance at Prior Support: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD Talking Points:

美元，欧元/美元，美元/日元，澳元/美元谈话要点：

• The US Dollar has put in a bounce to start Q3 trade, with sellers showing up to offer resistance at the underside of a prior bullish trend-line.

  美元已开始反弹以开始第三季度交易，卖家出现在先前看涨趋势线下方提供阻力。

• This keeps the door open for themes of weakness in the Greenback, and scenarios around EUR/USD or USD/JPY can be conducive for such themes. On the other side or for traders looking at USD-strength, AUD/USD remains of interest.

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US Dollar Scales Back, Finds Resistance at Rising Wedge Support

美元尺度回归，发现上升楔形支撑阻力

The Third Quarter has started with a bit of retracement in the US Dollar. The currency had broke-lower in the month of June around a dovish flip at the FOMC, with prices in DXY dipping-down for a fresh two-month-low. And as looked at in the Q3 technical forecast for USD, the backdrop leading into that break can keep the door open for bearish approaches in the currency as the door has opened into the second-half of 2019.

第三季度开始时美元出现小幅回撤。 6月份该货币在FOMC的温和下跌中走低，DXY的价格下跌至新的两个月低位。正如美国第三季度技术预测中所看到的那样，在2019年下半年大门开启时，导致该突破的背景可能会使货币继续处于看跌状态。

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The first few days of Q3, however, have seen a bit of pullback in that bearish trend. The area for lower-high resistance potential looked at yesterday, plotted from around the underside of the support portion of that rising wedge, has since come in to help carve-out short-term resistance. For traders looking to sell the Greenback, this could be an interesting area to investigate for such strategies, with particular emphasis paid to a couple of currency pairs that have shown last weeks USD weakness with a bit more prominence.

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US Dollar Daily Price Chart: Bounce from Two-Month-Lows

美元每日价格走势图：从两个月低点反弹

Chart prepared by James Stanley

詹姆斯·斯坦利编制的图表

EURUSD Pulls Back Towards Trend-Line Support

欧元兑美元回归趋势线支撑

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Of the pairs that showed the June pattern of weakness in the US Dollar fairly-well, EURUSD is on the list. And to be sure, this isnt because of any particularly bullish factors around the Euro-zone; but more likely due to the elongated short-side trend that had been in-place for more than a year. In the month of May, this set a series of bear traps on the underside of Euro price action; but sellers were continually thwarted at the 1.1100 level, suggesting a longer-term oversold dynamic in the pair.

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The June gasp of weakness in USD helped EURUSD to incline up to fresh two-month-highs, like emanating from a short-squeeze scenario as the US Dollar and FOMC forward-looking policy came into further focus. Should that theme continue, there could be more topside yet in EURUSD.

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At this point, the pair has scaled below the support zone at 1.1325-1.1350, and a bit-lower is another area of support potential that runs from 1.1248-1.1265, spanning the May swing-highs in the pair. A hold of support at this level keeps the door open for topside strategies with stops investigated below the Fibonacci level at 1.1187 that helped to quell the mid-June pullback in the pair.

此时，该货币对已跌破支撑区域1.1325-1.1350，略低于另一个支撑位于1.1248-1.1265的区域，跨越该货币对的5月摆动高点。在这一水平上获得支持，为上行策略敞开大门，在斐波那契水平1.1187附近调查止损，这有助于平息6月中旬的回调。

EURUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart

EURUSD八小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

USDJPY Re-Tests Key Resistance

USDJPY Re-Tests关键阻力

Also on the side of USD-weakness, USDJPY may retain some appeal. The pair had a strong first four months of the year, but May price action brought upon change as sellers started to make their mark, and that theme has lasted into the end of Q2.

同样在美元疲软方面，美元兑日元可能会保留一些上诉。今年前四个月有一对强势，但随着卖家开始崭露头角，5月价格行动带来了变化，而且这个主题已经持续了d进入第二季度末。

The backdrop around USDJPY is a little different than the above scenario in USD. In USDJPY, the short-side of the pair can remain particularly attractive given the appeal of the anti-risk Yen should risk aversion scenarios creep-in again. And while that may be difficult to imagine given the bullish backdrop in stocks, the bullish backdrop in bonds suggests that the potential for risk aversion remains.

美元兑日元周围的背景与美元的上述情况略有不同。在美元兑日元中，该货币对的短边可能仍然特别具有吸引力，因为抗风险日元的吸引力应该会让风险厌恶情绪再次蔓延。虽然鉴于股市的看涨背景可能难以想象，但债券的看涨背景表明风险规避的可能性仍然存在。

USDJPY Daily Price Chart

美元兑日元每日价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编制

At this point, USDJPY is coming off of a zone of resistance that was in play throughout June trade, taken from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November 2017 – March 2018 major move. This week‘s price action has now almost filled the opening-gap that showed up in the pair; but for traders that do want to look at short-side themes, they’d likely want to wait for a breech of the 107.50 level, which was last Fridays swing-low, to re-open the door for a downside test of the 107.00 handle. The primary complication would be the recent series of higher-highs and higher-lows that have developed, keeping the door open for a deeper retracement of the May-June bearish theme.

此时，美元兑日元正走出阻力区这是整个6月交易中的表现，取自2017年11月至2018年3月重大举措的38.2％斐波纳契回撤位。本周的价格走势几乎填补了该货币对出现的开盘差距;但对于那些想看短线主题的交易者来说，他们可能希望等待107.50水平的上涨，这是上周五的低点，重新打开107.00的下行测试的大门。处理。主要的复杂因素是最近发生的一系列高点和高点，为5月至6月看跌主题的更深回撤保持敞开大门。

USDJPY Four-Hour Price Chart

USDJPY四小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

由James Stanley编制的图表

AUDUSD Bearish Engulfing on Day One of Q3

澳元兑美元看跌吞没第三季度第一天

On the long side of the US Dollar, AUDUSD can remain of interest. The pair put in a resistance inflection in mid-June that led into fresh five-month-lows. As USD-weakness was getting priced-in across a number of pairs, AUDUSD pushed right back up to that resistance zone, and after an opening gap-higher to start this weeks trade, sellers have come back with aggression.

在美元走强的情况下，澳元兑美元仍可能受到关注。该货币对在6月中旬出现阻力位，导致新的5个月低点。由于美元疲软在多个货币对中被定价，澳元兑美元再次向上推动该阻力位区域，并且在开始这个星期交易的开盘差距开始之后，卖家已经带着侵略性回归。

Yesterday saw the build of a bearish engulfing candlestick, which will often be approached with the aim of directional continuation. Already, prices have bounced back to the .7000 big figure to find resistance.

昨天看到了一个看跌吞没烛台的建造，这个烛台经常被接近以定向延续为目的。价格已经反弹至.7000的大数字以找到阻力。

AUDUSD Daily Price Chart

澳元兑美元每日价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

For traders looking at bullish strategies around the US Dollar, AUDUSD will likely stand out as one of the more attractive options amongst major pairs. Continued seller defense of the resistance area around the .7000 big figure keeps the door open for bearish approaches, with targets directed to prior support zones around .6955, .6911 and then .6850.

对于看好美元周围看涨策略的交易者而言，澳元兑美元可能会成为主要货币对中较具吸引力的选择之一。持续卖方对.7000大数字附近的阻力区域的防守使得看跌方向的门敞开，目标指向先前的支撑区域.6955，.6911和.6850。

AUDUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

澳元兑美元四小时价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表