US Dollar Price Outlook for Q3 in EUR/USD, USD/JPY

US Dollar Price Outlook Talking Points:

美元价格展望谈话要点：

• The US Dollar put in a bearish theme in the month of June around a dovish flip at the FOMC; running in contrast to the bullish backdrop that showed in the currency for much of the 15 months prior. Can sellers continue to push the Greenback lower as the Q3 open nears？

  美元处于看跌主题六月份在FOMC的温和翻转周围;与之前15个月大部分时间以货币显示的看涨背景形成鲜明对比。随着Q3开盘接近，卖家能否继续推动美元走低？

• While the Fed may still not be as dovish as Central Banks in Europe or Japan, those themes are far older and less surprising. There may be more room for themes of USD-weakness to get priced in as investors grapple with whether the Fed will actually cut rates in 2H 2019.

  虽然美联储可能仍然不像欧洲或日本的中央银行那样温和，这些主题更古老，更不令人惊讶。由于投资者正在努力解决美联储是否会在2019年下半年实际降息，因此可能会有更多空间让美元疲软的主题得到定价。

US Dollar Bears Come into Play to Cap Q2 Trade

美元熊进入游戏第二季度交易

This is the final trading day for the first-half of 2019 and it‘s already been an interesting year across global markets. The risk slump from Q4 carried some ramifications into 2019 trade as a strong bullish theme that ran into April started to come into question in the month of May. The big driver around that pivot appeared to be the Fed, as it was the FOMC’s rate decision that concluded on May 1 that led to a large sell-off in stocks that stuck around for pretty much the entirety of last month.

这是2019年上半年的最后一个交易日，在全球市场上已经是一个有趣的一年。第四季度的风险下滑对2019年的交易产生了一些影响，因为强烈的看涨主题在4月份开始受到质疑。这个支点的主要推动力似乎是美联储，因为正是联邦公开市场委员会5月1日的利率决定导致股票大幅抛售，这些股票在上个月全部停滞不前。

It wasnt until comments from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell in early-June that equity markets started to find support, and this is also around the time that matters began to impact the FX-world as allusions to more dovish policy out of the Fed started to hit the US Dollar. As risk markets came back to life, punctuated by strong topside moves in markets like Gold to go along with US stocks, the US Dollar dropped with aggression throughout the month of June, breaking below a rising wedge formation along the way. Something like this will often be approached with bearish aim, and the big question for Q3 is whether USD bears might be able to continue driving matters.

直到6月初联邦公开市场委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发表评论，股票市场才开始寻求支持，而且这也是在重要时刻开始影响外汇世界的时候美联储的温和政策开始打击美元。随着风险市场恢复生机，黄金等市场强劲的上行动作与美国股市同步，美元随着侵略而下跌在6月份的粗略结束时，一路上突破了一个上升的楔形。这样的事情通常会以看跌目的来逼近，而第三季度的一个重要问题是美元空头能否继续推动事态发展。

US Dollar Weekly Price Chart

美元每周价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

The US Dollar nears the Q3 open as it hangs on to a big area of support on the chart. The 96.04 level is the 50% marker of the 2017-2018 major move, and just below that at 95.86 is the 50% marker of the long-term move, taking the 2001 top down to the 2008 low. As shown on the monthly chart below, this level has had some element of pull on price action since it came back into play in March of 2015.

美元接近第三季度开盘，因为它在图表上占据了很大的支撑位。 96.04水平是2017-2018重大举措的50％标志，略低于95.86水平是长期举措的50％标志，将2001年的最高水平降至2008年的低位。如下图所示，自2015年3月重新发挥作用以来，该水平已经有一些拉动价格行动的因素。

US Dollar Monthly Chart

美元月度图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

Areas of Interest for USD-Weakness in Q3

第3季度美元疲弱的利息区域

If the US Dollar is going to pose a bigger breakdown in the second-half of this year, a natural next question is which markets might be best for such a scenario？ And outside of risk assets like gold, there arent many currencies that carry significant appeal given the dovish stance across global central banks.

如果美元将在今年下半年出现更大的崩溃，那么下一个自然问题是哪种市场可能最适合这种情况？并且风险资产之外与黄金一样，鉴于全球各中央银行的鸽派立场，许多货币都具有重大吸引力。

The Euro and the ECB are a great example here. The central bank isn‘t anywhere near hawkish, nor does it appear that they’ll be there anytime soon. As a matter of fact, just earlier this month, Mario Draghi warned that the bank may need to look at further options for shoring up the European economy, but that warning seemed to matter little as USD-weakness outpaced that which showed up in the Euro, leading to a net move of strength so far this month. This alludes to the fact that the longer-term down-trend in EURUSD may remain to be oversold; and if the USD sell-off continues into Q3, EURUSD remains as an attractive venue for that theme.

欧元和欧洲央行就是一个很好的例子。中央银行并非近乎鹰派，也不会很快就会出现在那里。事实上，就在本月早些时候，马里奥德拉吉警告说，该银行可能需要考虑进一步的选择来支撑欧洲经济，但这一警告似乎并不重要，因为美元疲软程度超过了欧元区的表现。 ，导致净移动这个月到目前为止的实力。这暗示了欧元兑美元的长期下跌趋势可能仍然处于超卖状态;如果美元贬值持续到第三季度，欧元兑美元仍然是该主题的一个有吸引力的场所。

At this point, EURUSD is holding higher-low support near fresh three-month-highs, and this takes place in a zone that I had looked at on Tuesday; taken from the April and early-June swing-highs, projected into current support. This keeps focus on resistance potential from the prior range that runs from 1.1448-1.1500.

此时，欧元兑美元在新的三个月附近维持高位低位支撑 - 高，这发生在我周二看过的区域;取自4月和6月初的摆动高点，预计将进入目前的支撑位。这将继续关注从1.1448-1.1500开始的先前区间的阻力位。

EURUSD Daily Price Chart

EURUSD每日价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

USDJPY Reverses in Q2

美元兑日元在第二季度逆转

One theme that did not come back to life with the return of the risk trade was the bullish backdrop in USDJPY. While the pair did a fairly respectable job of echoing risk themes in Q4 of last year as and Q1 of this year, Q2 saw that begin to diverge a bit.

一个未回归的主题美元兑日元背景下的风险交易回归生活。虽然这对在去年第四季和今年第一季度的风险主题上做了相当可观的工作，但第二季度开始出现分歧。

USDJPY sold-off aggressively in Q4 but came back to life in Q1, mirroring what was taking place in US equities. Similarly, bears came back into play around early-May and drove for most of the month; but when the early-June flip around FOMC commentary came into play USDJPY continued to languish near the lows even though the risk trade was in full-bloom elsewhere.

美元兑日元遭遇抛售在第四季度积极进取，但在第一季度恢复生机，反映了美国股市的情况。同样，熊在5月初左右重新开始运作，并在本月的大部分时间里开车;但当6月初FOMC评论开始发挥作用时，即使风险交易在其他地方盛行，美元兑日元继续在低点附近徘徊。

{777}

I have been looking at the short-side of the pair throughout the month, continuing to use a Fibonacci retracement from the November 2017-March 2018 major move, and the 23.6% retracement of that major move has come in to help set the five-month-low. The ensuing bounce has seen prices trickle-up to an area of prior support, around the 108.00 handle, and this keeps the door open for short-side scenarios in the pair in the second-half of the year.

{777}

USDJPY Daily Price Chart

USDJPY每日价格图表