Australian Dollar Still Mired But Could Ride Feds Risk Wave Higher

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Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bullish

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• The Australian Dollar has gained with others as the Feds dovishness hit the greenback

  由于美联储的鸽派遭遇美元，澳大利亚元与其他人一起上涨

• The RBA for its part is still arguably less dovish than the market

  RBA本身仍然不如市场温和

• This week might well see AUD/USD gains hold

  本周可能会看到澳元/美元持有

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollars prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

了解零售外汇交易商目前对澳元的前景的看法，实时，在DailyFX情绪页面

The Australian Dollar made gains last week, inspired by central bank commentary from the both sides of the AUD/USD pair.

上周澳元兑美元汇率上涨，受到澳元/美元双方央行评论的启发。

The US Federal Reserve left its monetary settings alone but did nothing to disabuse futures-market participants betting on a July interest rate cut. This caused a surge in bearish Dollar plays across the traded-currency complex, with the Aussie benefitting despite what was at face value even more dovish commentary from its own central bank.

美国联邦储备委员会单独放弃货币政策，但没有消除期货市场的影响ipants押注7月降息。这引发了整个交易货币综合体看跌美元汇率的飙升，澳元受益于尽管表面价值更加温和的央行评论。

Speaking in Adelaide Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said that expectations of another cut in the record low 1.25% Official Cash Rate were ‘no unreasonable.’ This is explicit talk indeed from a central banker. However, Lowe also pointed again to the limits of monetary policy‘s effectiveness in a world were rates have been at historic lows for some years. In doing so he was perhaps, once again, less dovish than the Australian Dollar market overall. Of course, the RBA will attempt to fulfil its inflation mandate and, while pricing power remains weak, lower rates will remain an option. But, given Australia’s roaring consumer debt levels, the bar to reductions beyond a single further quarter point move may yet be higher than the market thinks.

澳大利亚阿德莱德储备银行行长Philip Lowe表示，再次下调1.25％的官方现金利率的预期是“不合理的。”这是中央银行家的明确谈话。然而，Lowe还再次指出货币政策在一个世界中的有效性的限制，因为利率已经处于历史低点多年。在这样做的过程中，他或许再一次不如澳大利亚元市场那么温和。当然，澳联储将试图履行其通胀任务，虽然定价权仍然疲软，但较低的利率仍将是一种选择。但是，考虑到澳大利亚飙升的消费者债务水平，降息幅度超过一个单一的另一个季度点可能会高于市场的预期。

The coming week offers very little in the way of first-tier Australian economic news. Two RBA speakers, including Mr. Lowe are on tap. If they stick to the current script and give the market little reason to price in more than a single near-term rate cut, the Australian Dollar market is likely to remain focused on the US Dollars fortunes.

即将到来的一周提供v这对澳大利亚一线经济新闻的影响不大。包括Lowe先生在内的两位RBA发言人正在努力。如果他们坚持目前的脚本，让市场没有理由为超过一次短期降息定价，那么澳元市场可能会继续关注美元的财富。

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To be clear, a quieter week need not portend any great turnaround in the overall bearish backdrop still very much in place for AUD/USD. But it might extend battered Aussie bulls‘ time of respite until, as it certainly will, focus returns to the currency’s own abject lack of policy support.

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Its a cautiously bullish call this week, rooted entirely in global risk appetite.

本周谨慎看涨，完全根植于全球风险偏好。