US Dollar Sell-Off Pauses at Key Support - Can Bears Break Through？

US Dollar, EURUSD, USDJPY Talking Points:

美元，欧元兑美元，美元兑日元谈话要点：

• Its been a big week across global markets and next week is the final full week of Q2.

  这是一个跨越全球的重要一周市场和下周是第二季度的最后一周。

• This opens the door to a number of interesting themes as the Q3 open approaches, key of which are major moves showing in both stock and commodity markets. FX markets have an interesting backdrop at the moment considering the fact that, again, most major Central Banks around-the-world are harboring some form of dovishness.

  这为Q3开放式方法打开了许多有趣主题的大门，关键是这是股票和商品市场的主要举措。外汇市场目前有一个有趣的背景，考虑到这样一个事实，即世界上大多数主要的中央银行都拥有某种形式的鸽派。

US Dollar Drops Back to Confluent Support

美元回落至合并支持

It‘s been a big week across global markets and some very key items have shown up, such as Gold’s topside run above the 1400 level. The Federal Reserves rate decision on Wednesday produced reverberations throughout global markets that continue to show, and there may still be some pricing-in of these themes to be seen yet. At the core of the issue is the US Dollar, which had previously spent much of the past eight months in a bullish state; and now may be on the cusp of a very bearish run aided by this dovish flip at the Fed.

这是全球市场的重要一周，并且已经出现了一些非常关键的项目，例如由于黄金的上行突破1400水平。周三的联邦储备利率决定产生了全球市场的反响，并继续显示，这些主题可能仍有一些定价。该问题的核心是美元，此前美元在过去八个月的大部分时间都处于看涨状态;现在可能正处于美联储这种温和倾向助力的非常看跌的情况下。

Coming into Q2 the US Dollar had built into an ascending triangle formation. This is a setup that will often be approached in a bullish manner, looking for the enthusiasm thats driven-in bulls at higher-lows to, eventually, allow for a topside break through horizontal resistance.

进入第二季度美元已进入上升三角形态。这是一个通常以看涨方式接近的设置，寻找在高位低点驱动多头的热情，最终允许上行突破横向阻力。

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

美元每日价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

That happened in April and then again in May. The problem was that once the price of 98.33 came into play, bulls lost motivation and prices scaled-back; producing a double-top formation. But also taken from that failure near resistance was a weaker-sloped trend-line that helped to produce a rising wedge pattern; and unlike the ascending triangle looked at above, the rising wedge will often be approached in a bearish manner, looking for reversals as the same reticence from buyers displayed at the highs plays through for an eventual break of support at the lows.

这发生在4月份，然后是5月份。问题是，一旦98.33的价格发挥作用，多头失去动力和价格缩减;产生双顶形态。但也从阻力附近的失败中得出一个较弱的趋势线，这有助于产生上涨的楔形attern;而且不像上面看到的上升三角形，上升的楔形通常会以看跌的方式接近，寻找逆转，因为高点所显示的买家同样保持平衡，最终突破支撑位于低点。

US Dollar Weekly Price Chart

美元每周价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

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US Dollar Strategy for Q3

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Theres now one full week left in Q2. Given the turn at the Fed and the moves that followed, traders may be lining up longer-term scenarios of USD-weakness. The big question is where？

现在在第二季度剩下一整周了。鉴于美联储的转机以及随后的举措，交易员可能正在排列美元疲软的长期情景。最重要的问题是在哪里？

With most Central Banks harboring some form of dovishness, there arent many major currencies that are attractive for scenarios of strength. Just this week, we saw a dovish speech from Mario Draghi push down the Euro… for about a day; but the Fed meeting that followed more than took out that move and prices in EURUSD are now jumping towards fresh two-month-highs. The Bank of Japan was similar, threatening even more loosening yet seeing a net result of Yen-strength.

由于大多数中央银行都有某种形式的鸽派，因此很多主要货币对强势情景都不具吸引力。就在这个星期，我们看到马里奥德拉吉的温和演讲推翻了欧元......大约一天;但美联储此次会议不仅取消了这一举措，而且欧元兑美元的价格现在已经跃升至新的两个月高位。日本银行也是如此，威胁到更多的放松，却看到了日元强势的净结果。

And this helps to explain why Gold prices have been so incredibly strong over the past 48 hours and, bigger picture, through the month of June as market participants began to price this theme in. This also places emphasis on the long side of stocks, as dovish Central Bank support the world-around can be used to offset even minor setbacks in the business cycle.

这有助于解释为什么过去黄金价格如此强劲在市场参与者开始对这个主题进行定价的过程中，48个小时以及更大的图片显示了6月份。这也强调了股票的长边，因为温和的中央银行支持世界各地可以用来抵消即使是轻微的挫折在商业周期中。

In yesterdays webinar, I looked at the matter across a number of major currency pairs. And as noted above, pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY may have backdrops allowing for a continuation of USD-weakness. In EURUSD, this would be more of a short-squeeze scenario as bearish bets in the pair unwind on the back of this dovish flip at the Fed. The down-trend in EUR/USD is now more than a year-old, and after breaking the recent range in March of this year, Euro bears were able to do little as they got caught in a bear trap scenario.

在昨天的网络研讨会上，我看了很多主要货币对的问题。如上所述，欧元/美元和美元/日元等货币对可能会有继续美元疲软的背景。在欧元兑美元中，这将是一个短暂的挤压情景，因为在美联储的温和下跌背后，该货币对的看空下注。欧元/美元的下跌趋势现在超过一年 - ld，在今年3月突破近期区间后，欧元熊在陷入困境的情况下能够做得很少。

Now that prices have flickered back into that prior range, the levels and zones that were previously in use can be re-engaged with. As looked at in this weeks FX Setups, this can allow for a move up to the 1.1400 handle, after which prior range resistance becomes of interest and that runs from 1.1448-1.1500.

现在价格已经回落在之前的范围内，之前使用的级别和区域可以重新使用。正如本周FX设置所看到的那样，这可以允许向上移动至1.1400手柄，之后先前的区间阻力变得有意义并且从1.1448-1.1500开始。

EURUSD Daily Price Chart

EURUSD每日价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

USDJPY to Fresh Five-Month-Lows After FOMC, BoJ

USDJPY to Fresh Five-联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）之后的月度低点，日本央行

Also of interest on the short-side of the US Dollar is USD/JPY. I was tracking the short side of the pair coming into this month, and thats filled-in fairly well so far. Should USD-weakness remain as a dominant theme across the FX space, there could be more room for the pair to fall as carry trades further unwind and new information is priced-in. A dovish stance at the BoJ is fairly familiar, while this flip at the Fed is rather new, and there may be more room for this to run as that item gets further factored-in to current prices.

美元空头的利息也是美元/日元。我正在追踪这个月进入这一对的短边，到目前为止，这一点相当不错。如果美元疲软仍然是外汇市场的主要主题，随着套利交易进一步放松和新信息定价，该货币对可能有更大空间下跌。对日本央行的温和立场是相当熟悉的，而美联储的这种转变是相当新的，并且可能有更多的空间来运行，因为该项目进一步考虑当前价格。

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USDJPY Daily Price Chart

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Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表