Kiwi Price Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Counter-Offensive, First Test

• NZD/USD price recovery targeting initial resistance ahead of FOMC

  新西兰元兑美元的价格回升目标是在FOMC之前的初始阻力

• Check out our 2019 projections in our Free DailyFX USD Trading Forecasts

  在我们的免费DailyFX美元交易预测中查看我们的2019年预测

• Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT

  加入迈克尔周一的直播周刊策略网络研讨会格林威治标准时间12点30分

The New Zealand Dollar is the worst performer year-to-date against the US Dollar with NZD/USD down more than 2.8%. A test of the May lows held last week with the recovery now eyeing near-term resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD charts heading in to tomorrow‘s FOMC interest rate decision. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

新西兰元是今年以来表现最差的新西兰元兑美元汇率新西兰元/美元下跌超过2.8％。对上周五月低点的测试显示，近期阻力位正在回升。这些是更新的目标和失效水平，对于明天的FOMC利率决定而言，新西兰元/美元图表上的重要性。回顾本周的策略网络研讨会，深入了解此设置及其他内容。

New to Forex Trading？ Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

外汇交易新手入门？开始使用此免费入门指南

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Kiwi Price Chart - NZD/USD Daily

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Technical Outlook: In my latest New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Kiwi had, “broken the monthly opening-range lows with the decline taking price into weekly support – risk remains for possible downside exhaustion.” Price turned just pips from the 88.6% retracement of the 2018 advance at 6487 with the subsequent rebound now targeting monthly open resistance at 6528.

技术展望：我最新的新西兰元周价格展望我们注意到，新西兰元“曾打破月度开盘价低点，下跌价格下跌至每周支撑位 - 可能出现下行疲惫的风险。”价格从20187年预期的88.6％回撤位6487回升，随后反弹现在针对每月开放阻力位6528。

A breach / close above the median-line is needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway targeting the 61.8% retracement at 6558 and the April lows at 6580. Broader bearish invalidation stands with the upper parallel. A break lower from here would mark resumption of the March downtrend targeting the 2018 low-day close at 6455 & the 2018 low at 6424.

需要突破/收于中线以上才能表明正在进行更大的复苏目标是6558的61.8％回撤位和658的4月低点0.较宽的看跌无效与上方平行。从这里突破将标志着3月下行趋势的恢复，目标是2018年低点收盘价6455和2018年低点6424。

Why does the average trader lose？ Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

为什么平均交易者会失败？避免这些交易中的错误

Kiwi Price Chart - NZD/USD 120min

新西兰元价格表 - 新西兰元/美元120分钟

Notes: A closer look at Kiwi price action shows NZD/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the June highs with the 75% line further highlighting near-term resistance at 6528/34 – look for a reaction there. A topside breach keeps the focus on the upper parallel / 6558 – area of interest for near-term price exhaustion. Failure to break this zone would shift the focus back towards the

注意：仔细观察新西兰元的价格走势，显示新西兰元/美元在6月高位延伸的干草叉形成范围内交易，75％线进一步突显近期阻力位6528/34 - 寻找反应。上行突破将焦点放在上行平行/ 6558 - 近期价格疲惫的利息区域。未能突破该区域将把焦点转移回

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

了解如何在我们的免费交易指南中自信地交易

Bottom line: The Kiwi recovery is now approaching initial resistance targets at 6528/33 and ultimately a topside breach of this formation is needed suggest a more significant low is in place. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a move into this resistance zone - risk for near-term exhaustion but IF price is heading higher, losses should be limited to the weekly open. A break of the weekly opening-range lows would keep the focus on 6455.

一句话：新西兰元的复苏目前接近6528/33的初步阻力目标，最终需要突破这一形态的上行趋势从交易的角度来看，在进入这个阻力区时，希望减少长期暴露/提高保护性止损 - 风险对于近期疲惫但IF价格走高，损失应限于每周开盘。突破每周开盘价低点将使焦点保持在6455点。

For a complete breakdown of Michaels trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

有关迈克尔斯交易策略的完整细分，请查看他关于建立交易策略的技术分析基础系列

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

NZD / USD Trader Sentiment

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD - the ratio stands at +4.02 (80.1% of traders are long) – bearish reading

  IG客户情绪摘要显示，交易者净值为新西兰元/美元 - 该比率为+4.02（交易者持有的比例为80.1％） - 看跌看跌

• Traders have remained net-long since April 2nd; price has moved 5.3% lower since then

  交易商自4月2日以来一直保持净多头;此后价格已下跌5.3％

• Long positions are 7.4% higher than yesterday and 32.0% higher from last week

  多头头寸比昨天增加7.4％，比上周增加32.0％

• Short positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 32.1% lower from last week

  空头头寸比昨天增加1.6％，下跌32.1％rom上周

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Kiwi prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取反向观点来看待市场情绪，而且交易商净多头表明新西兰元价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前市场情绪和近期变化的结合使我们从情绪的角度看待新西兰元/美元看跌的逆势交易偏见。