EURJPY, EURUSD Rates Hit by Selling Pressure after Draghi Comments

ECB Stimulus Talking Points:

欧洲央行激励谈话要点：

• With ECB President Mario Draghi talking up the possibility of more stimulus, the Euro is under renewed pressure across the board.

  欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉谈论更多可能性刺激措施，欧元全面承受新的压力。

• Ongoing deterioration in medium-term inflation expectations and soft growth momentum may necessitate further action before Draghis term ends on October 31, 2019.

  中期通胀预期的持续恶化和软增长动力可能需要在Draghis之前采取进一步行动该期限于2019年10月31日结束。

• Retail traders have shifted to buying Euros despite consistent losses over the past week.

  零售交易商已转向购买欧元，尽管过去一周持续亏损。

See our long-term forecasts for the Euro and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides.

使用DailyFX交易指南查看我们对欧元和其他主要货币的长期预测。

Just two weeks after the June European Central Bank meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi has spent part of his time at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal talking up the possibility of more stimulus in the coming months.

在6月欧洲央行会议召开两周后，欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉将部分时间花在葡萄牙辛特拉的欧洲央行中央银行论坛上，讨论未来几个月可能出现更多刺激措施。

The latest signal for a dovish turn by the ECB comes as other central banks, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, have already cut their main interest rates. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears on the verge of starting its interest rate cut cycle in earnest when it announces the results of the June Fed meeting on Wednesday, June 19.

欧洲央行温和转向的最新信号来自其他央行，如储备银行澳大利亚和新西兰储备银行已经降低了主要利率。与此同时，美联储在6月19日星期三公布六月美联储会议的结果时，似乎正准备开始降息周期。

Draghis Comments a Change in Tone from the June ECB Meeting

德拉吉的评论6月欧洲央行会议的声调变化

The comments by ECB President Draghi today mark a departure of the patient, ‘wait-and-see’ approach prescribed at the start of the month. It was at the June ECB meeting that ECB President Draghi declared that he doesnt “see any substantial worsening in outlook.” But now, “in the absence of improvement,” ECB President Draghi appears ready to act with “further cuts” to interest rates to support the near-term economic outlook.

欧洲央行行长德拉吉今天发表的评论标志着患者离职，“等待观察”的方式在月初。正是在6月欧洲央行会议上，欧洲央行行长德拉吉宣称他“没有看到前景出现任何实质性恶化。”但现在，“在没有改善的情况下”，欧洲央行行长德拉吉似乎准备采取“进一步削减”行动。支持近期经济前景的利率。

While the comments from ECB President Draghi may have sparked the ire of US President Donald Trump in a series of tweets this morning, the central bank chief did say that “we have our remit, we have our mandate…defined as [targeting] a rate of inflation close but below 2 per cent over the medium term…we are ready to use all the instruments that are necessary to fulfil this mandate and we cant target the exchange rate.”

虽然欧洲央行行长德拉吉的言论可能引发美国总统唐纳德特朗普今早在一系列推文中的愤怒，中央银行行长确实说“我们有自己的职权范围，我们有我们的授权......定义为[目标]一个比率o通胀接近但在中期内低于2％......我们已准备好使用履行这一任务所需的所有工具，我们不能以汇率为目标。”

Even if the Euro isn‘t being directly targeted by ECB monetary policy, the indirect impact of the ECB’s latest dovish turn is that traders are driving EUR-crosses lower.

如果欧元不是欧洲央行货币政策的直接目标，欧洲央行最近温和转向的间接影响是交易商推动欧元走低。

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (July 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 1)

欧元兑美元技术分析：每日价格图表（2018年7月至2019年6月）（图1）

After appearing to start the process of bottoming out at the start of June, a clear lack of follow through to the topside in recent days has seen EURUSD prices lose significant technical support. The bullish piercing candle on June 6 constituted a near-term swing level of support, and a close back below said level at 1.1200 today would be a strong indication that further losses are due in the days ahead.

看似在开始时开始触底的过程6月份，近几天明显缺乏跟进上行的情况，欧元兑美元的价格已经失去了重要的技术支撑。 6月6日的看涨穿刺蜡烛构成了近期的支撑位，并且今天收盘回落至该水平1.1200附近将是未来几天进一步下跌的强烈迹象。

{14}

Momentum is quickly eroding for EURUSD, with price back below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, while both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics have started to turn lower (albeit only the latter is in bearish territory at this time). Its possible that the coming days see EURUSD rates return to the bullish falling wedge pattern; if so, the odds of a reversal back to the yearly lows near 1.1110 would increase.

{14}

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURUSD Price Forecast (June 14, 2019) (Chart 2)

IG客户情绪指数：EURUSD价格预测（2019年6月14日）（图2）

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 56.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.28 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 5.6% lower than yesterday and 23.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.1% higher than yesterday and 22.6% lower from last week.

欧元兑美元：零售交易者数据显示，56.1％的交易者为净多头，交易者多头做空比率为1.28比1。交易商净多头比昨天减少5.6％，比上周增加23.9％，而交易商数量净空头比昨天增加3.1％，比上周减少22.6％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，事实上，交易者净多头意味着欧元兑美元价格可能继续下跌。定位比昨天减少净多头，但比上周净多头。当前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们进一步加剧了欧元兑美元的交易偏见。

EURJPY Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (July 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 3)

EURJPY技术分析：每日价格走势图（2018年7月至2019年6月）（图3）

EURJPY rates are at a key decision area following ECB President Draghis comments on Tuesday. It was just last week that EURJPY prices closed above the daily 13- and 21-EMAs for the first time since April 23, breaking the descending trendline off the April and May swing highs in the process.

欧洲央行行长德拉吉斯周二发表评论后，欧元兑日元汇率处于关键决定区域。就在上周，欧元兑日元的价格自4月23日以来首次收于每日13和21-EMA之上，突破了4月和5月的下行趋势线，在此过程中突破了高点。

{20}

But the break of the descending trendline is now in question, with EURJPY rates having come back down to test the former resistance as support. The retest is taking place around 121.22, the bullish piercing candle low from June 6 (note: a key date for EURUSD as well: the day of the June ECB meeting). Beyond there, a return below the descending trendline off the April and May swing highs would be a strong indication that the yearly closing low of 120.92 would be in focus.

{20}

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURJPY Price Forecast (June 14, 2019) (Chart 4)

IG客户情绪指数：EURJPY价格预测（2019年6月14日）（图4）

EURJPY: Retail trader data shows 58.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.43 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 25 when EURJPY traded near 126.556; price has moved 4.1% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.6% lower than yesterday and 19.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.3% lower than yesterday and 5.1% higher from last week.

EURJPY：零售交易者数据显示58.8％的交易者净卖出交易者长期与空头的比率为1.43比1.事实上，自4月25日EURJPY交易于126.556附近以来，交易者仍然保持净多头;此后价格已下跌4.1％。数量交易商净多头较昨日下跌8.6％，较上周下跌19.1％，而交易商净空头数较昨日下跌17.3％，较上周上涨5.1％。

{777}

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.