Gold Price Gears Up for Another Shot at Big-Picture Breakout

Gold Price Talking Points:

黄金价格谈话要点：

• Gold prices has been bid throughout the month of June, gaining as much as $83 over the past three weeks.

  黄金价格已在整个6月份出价，

• While the move was initially synced with a sell-off in the US Dollar, a recent topside push in USD has been of little hindrance to the bullish theme in Gold.

  虽然此举最初与美元的抛售同步，但最近的上行空间有所收获推动美元对黄金的看涨主题几乎没有什么障碍。

• Gold bulls have pushed prices back to a key zone of resistance that was previously dubbed ‘the danger zone.’ With FOMC on the docket for tomorrow, can bulls drive the bid until a fresh five-year-high comes into play？

  黄金多头推动价格回到以前的关键阻力区域被称为“危险区域”。明天FOMC将在明天开始讨论时，公牛可以推动竞标，直到新的五年高位发挥作用？

• Tomorrows FOMC appears to carry the wide expectation for the bank to be not-as-dovish as markets have come to expect, and this may keep Gold prices subdued near-term. But – the weekend after next brings G20, might this be the catalyst that Gold bulls are looking for？

Gold Price Gears Up for Another Shot at Breakout

黄金价格在另一次上涨突破

The game is on, and Gold bulls may have finally met their match, at least for now, as taken from a long-term zone of resistance thats held the highs in the yellow metal for the past five years.

比赛开始了，金牛队可能终于遇到了他们的比赛，至少从现在开始，这是从一个长期的区域在过去的五年里，阻力位居黄金的高点。

As looked at coming into last month, Gold prices were gearing up for a breakout. This comes after three months of digestion following a strong topside move that began in August of last year. And as gold prices firmed from support around the 1160 level, buyers retained control all the way into mid-February, helping to produce a swing high at 1346.75. The next three months brought consolidation, with support eventually setting-in from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of that major move.

从上个月看，黄金价格正在准备突破。这是在去年8月开始的强劲上行之后消化了三个月之后。随着黄金价格在1160水平附近从支撑位走强，买家在2月中旬一直保持控制，帮助创出1346.75的高点。接下来的三个月带来盘整，支撑最终从该重大走势的38.2％斐波那契回撤位置开始。

{9}

And as looked at a few weeks ago, Gold prices appeared to be getting closer to that breakout as buyers continued to cauterize support around this key level on the chart, taken from around the 1275.55 price that helped to hold the lows for more than a month on the weekly look in Gold.

{9}

Gold Price Weekly Chart

黄金价格周线图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

The Big Picture Behind Gold Prices – Is Now the Right Time？

黄金价格背后的大背景 - 现在是时候了吗？

Taking a further step back on the Gold market, and a long-term zone of resistance sits overhead. This is an area of prices thats rebuked multiple topside advances over the past half-decade, and many of those instances happened with a backdrop resembling our current scenario: A one-sided move sees Gold prices catapult to resistance; only to fall flat as Gold prices trickle-lower whilst staying in the longer-term range.

进一步退回黄金市场，并且长期阻力区位于上方。这是一个价格区域，在过去的五年中斥责了多个上行方向的进展，而且很多这些情况发生的背景类似于我们目前的情况：一个片面的举动看到黄金价格弹劾阻力;只有在黄金价格涓滴 - 同时保持在较长期范围内时才会下跌。

And while this time may very well turn out to be different, betting on such, particularly as Gold prices are so extended from nearby supports, appears to be a question of prudence.

虽然这段时间可能会有所不同，但押注于这一点，特别是因为黄金价格从附近的支撑位如此延伸，似乎是一个谨慎的问题。

{16}

Taking a further step back to the Monthly chart and the importance of this resistance zone becomes a bit more clear. The bearish trend-line making up this longer-term symmetrical wedge pattern remains in-play this morning, helping to set todays resistance in Gold prices.

{16}

Gold Price Monthly Chart

黄金价格月度图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

Gold Price Strategy Moving Forward

黄金价格策略向前推进

As discussed last Friday, this can be a difficult spot if looking to line-up bullish exposure on Gold prices. An FOMC rate decision set to announce tomorrow will likely keep the yellow-metal on the move; but given context, it can be difficult to justify the risk outlay necessary to jump in on the long side.

正如上周五所讨论的那样，如果想要看好金价的看涨风险，这可能是个难点。将于明天宣布的FOMC利率决定可能会使黄金继续上涨;但鉴于背景，很难证明从长远来看需要承担风险支出的合理性。

Given the current posturing below resistance that‘s been showing in Gold price action, and traders have a couple of options for moving forward. Topside breakout potential could still remain, although this would be an approach likely reserved for the more aggressive Gold bulls. The area for staging this topside breakout approach can be either aggressive, focusing in on last week’s high around 1358.30; or a bit more conservative, looking for the five-year high to first get taken-out around the 1375 level.

鉴于金价行动中目前的阻力低于阻力位，交易者有几个前进的选择。上行突破强效al仍然可以保留，尽管这可能是一种可能留给更具侵略性的黄金多头的方法。上演这一上行突破方法的区域可能是激进的，主要集中于上周高点1358.30附近;或者更保守一点，寻找五年来的高点，首先在1375水平附近被淘汰。

Alternatively, a pullback to support may be a more amenable way of operating with a continued bullish backdrop in Gold. I had looked at two levels last Friday, neither of which has yet come into play; but given the drivers on the headlines in the coming days, the potential for a large pullback remains, and this would carry with it the potential for better proximity to nearby support to allow for topside strategies. The same 1319 and 1302 levels remain of interest, with the latter of those prices also functioning as the mid-May swing-high. A break back-below 1300 would mark a clear change-of-pace, and at that point, the bullish stance would come in question and traders would likely want to re-evaluate further topside potential.

或者，支持回撤可能是一种更为顺从的方式。在黄金持续看涨背景下操作。上周五我看了两个级别，但这两个级别还没有发挥作用;但考虑到未来几天头条新闻的驱动因素，大幅回调的可能性依然存在，这将带来更好的接近附近支撑的潜力，以实现上行策略。同样的1319和1302水平仍然令人感兴趣，后者的价格也在5月中旬的高位运行。突破1300以下将标志着明显的变化，此时，看涨立场将受到质疑，交易者可能希望重新评估进一步的上行潜力。

{777}

Gold Price Daily Chart

{777}

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表