Sterling (GBP) Gripped by UK Leadership Vote, Hard Brexit Fears

Sterling (GBP) Price, Chart and Analysis

英镑（GBP）价格，图表和分析

• The second round of voting for the Conservative leadership continues today.

  保守党领导人的第二轮投票今天仍在继续。

• Sterling rattled by Boris Johnson and Hard Brexit rhetoric.

  鲍里斯·约翰逊和英国脱欧公司的言论引发了斯特林的争吵。

Q2 2019 GBP and USD Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

2019年第二季度英镑和美元预测及顶部交易机会

Sterling Rattled by Fears of a Hard Brexit as Boris Johnson Dominates the Polls

由于鲍里斯·约翰逊支持民意调查，对英国脱欧的担忧感到震惊

The British Pound remains weak in the face of heightened hard Brexit fears ahead of the second round of voting for the Conservative leader sip. Brexiteer Boris Johnson is currently a strong odds-on favorite to win the roll with some bookmakers pricing Johnson at a prohibitive 1/8 on with current second favorite Rory Stewart offered at 10/1. Indeed, it is mathematically possible that Boris Johnson could be announced as the new Tory leader today if none of the other 5 leadership hopefuls get the required 33 votes needed to keep the contest going. The result of the second round of voting is expected at 6pm today.

在第二轮投票之前英国脱欧的担忧加剧，英镑仍然疲软保守党领袖啜饮。 Brexiteer Boris Johnson目前是赢得奖金的最佳选择，一些博彩公司将约翰逊定为1/8，目前第二个受欢迎的Rory Stewart以10/1的价格收购。事实上，如果其他5位领导人中没有一位能够获得所需的33票来保持比赛，那么鲍里斯·约翰逊今天可能会被宣布为新的保守党领袖。第二轮投票的结果预计将在今天下午6点举行。

Sterling is now starting to price-in a potential Hard Brexit with Boris Johnson seemingly having the keys to No.10 Downing Street. Johnson has made it clear that he wants the UK to leave the EU on October 31 with or without a deal. As always in politics, there is wiggle room as Johnson has been saying recently that he would prefer a deal with changes made to the current Withdrawal Agreement to enable it to pass through Parliament. The EU however remain firm that no changes will be made, leaving Johnson in the same position as Theresa May.

英镑现在开始定价 - 潜在的英国脱欧与鲍里斯·约翰逊似乎拥有10号钥匙唐宁街。约翰逊明确表示他希望英国在10月31日离开欧盟，无论是否达成协议。就像政治一样，约翰逊最近一直在说他宁愿与现有的退出协议达成协议，以使其能够通过议会。然而，欧盟仍坚定不会做出任何改变，使约翰逊与特蕾莎梅一样处于同一地位。

With a Hard Brexit becoming fractionally more probable, and with another few months of haggling with the EU fully expected, Sterling is taking the brunt and heading back towards 2019 lows against the US dollar. It is likely that Sterling will weaken further before any turnaround occurs. The one factor that may prevent GBPUSD dropping sharply is tomorrows FOMC meeting where Fed Chair Powell is expected to point to a 0.25% US interest rate cut at the July meeting, the first of 2 or maybe even 3 rate cuts expected in the US this year.

随着英国退欧的可能性略有增加，再过几个月欧盟充分期待与欧盟的讨价还价，英镑首当其冲，兑美元汇率回落至2019年的低点。在任何转机发生之前，英镑可能会进一步走软。可能阻止英镑兑美元急剧下跌的一个因素是FOMC会议，美联储主席鲍威尔即将召开会议在7月份的会议上，美国将降息0.25％，这是今年美国预期的两次甚至3次降息中的第一次。

A look at the daily GBPUSD chart shows the January 2 low print at 1.2435 remains vulnerable. If broken convincingly, GBPUSD would be back at levels last seen in April 2017 and may attempt to break the March 2017 swing-low at 1.2110. The CCI indicator does show the pair in oversold territory and this may act as a brake on further downside momentum.

看看每日英镑兑美元图表显示，1月2日低点1.2435仍处于弱势。如果令人信服地突破，英镑兑美元将回到2017年4月的最后水平，并可能试图突破2017年3月的下跌至1.2110。 CCI指标确实表明该货币对处于超卖状态，这可能会阻碍进一步的下行势头。

IG Client Sentiment data paints a negative picture for the pair with 81.1% of traders long GBPUSD, a bearish contrarian bias signal. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a mixed trading bias for GBPUSD.

IG客户情绪数据描绘了该货币对的负面情况，其中81.1％为交易员多头英镑兑美元，一个看跌的逆势偏见信号。然而，最近的每日和每周位置变化给我们带来了英镑兑美元的混合交易偏见。

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (September 2018 – June 18, 2019)

英镑兑美元每日价格走势图（2018年9月 - 2019年6月18日）