Oil Weekly Price Outlook: Crude Crashes into Fibonacci Support

• Weekly technicals on Crude Oil prices (WTI)- testing support, broader risk lower sub-56.69

  关于原油价格（WTI）的每周技术报告 - 测试支撑，更广泛的风险低于56.69

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Crude Oil is setting a clean monthly opening-range just above key Fibonacci support at six-month lows. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the decline may be vulnerable here near-term and were on the lookout for possible exhaustion. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

在这个系列中，我们缩小尺寸并展望在更广泛的技术图片中，我们可以更多地了解我们的趋势。原油价格创下一个干净的月度开盘价，位于关键的斐波那契支撑位上方六个月低位。虽然更广泛的前景仍然偏向下行，但近期可能会出现下跌趋势，并且需要注意可能的疲惫。查看我最新的每周策略网络研讨会，深入了解此设置及其他内容。

New to Oil Trading？ Get started with this Free How to Trade Crude Oil Beginners Guide

石油交易新手？开始使用此免费原油交易原油指南

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly

原油价格走势图 - WTI每周

Notes: In my last Crude Weekly Price Outlook we noted that, “A break below the monthly range lows / confluence support leaves the risk lower heading into the close of the May trade.” – Three weeks later and oil prices have plummeted more than 25% from the yearly highs with crude testing the median-line of the descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2018 / 2019 highs.

注意：在我上一次的每周原油价格展望中我们注意到，“跌破每月区间低点/汇流支撑使得风险在5月交易结束时降低。” - 三周后，油价从年度高点下跌超过25％，原油测试结果显示下行干草叉形成的中线延伸至2018/2019年高点。

A weekly close below the 61.8% retracement of the December advance at 51.60 is needed to fuel the next leg lower targeting the weekly reversal close / slope confluence at ~ 48.24. Interim resistance stands at 55.21 backed by 56.69 - Ultimately a breach above the highlighted confluence zone at 60.06/47 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

每周收盘低于61.8％的回撤位12月需要在51.60上涨才能推动下一轮走低，目标是每周逆转al / slope汇合处于~48.24。中间阻力位于55.61，受56.69支撑 - 最终突破汇率区域60.06 / 47之上的突破将需要恢复更广泛的上升趋势。

Bottom line: The crude breakdown has taken oil prices into secondary support targets here and leaves the immediate short-bias at risk near-term while above 51.60. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / be on the lookout for possible exhaustion. Look for failure ahead of 56.70 IF prices are indeed heading lower on this stretch.Review my Top 2019 Trading Opportunities for a look at the longer-term Crude Oil outlook.

底线：原油分类已将油价作为次要支撑目标，并在短期内将短期偏见置于风险中而在51.60以上。从交易的角度来看，这是减少短期曝光/寻找可能的疲惫的好地方。在56.70之前寻找失败如果在这段时间内价格确实走低。回顾我的2019年顶级交易机会，看看长期原油前景。

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment

原油交易员情绪

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil- the ratio stands at +2.53 (71.7% of traders are long) – bearishreading

  IG客户情绪摘要显示交易商是净多头原油 - 该比率为+2.53（交易者持有的比例为71.7％） - 熊市

• Traders have remained net-long since May 22nd; price has moved 15.3% lower since then

  交易商自5月22日以来一直保持净多头;此后价格已下跌15.3％

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• Long positions are6.2% higher than yesterday and 2.7% higher from last week

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• Short positions are4.8% higher than yesterday and 22.4% higher from last week

  空头头寸比昨天增加4.8％，比上周增加22.4％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Crude Oil prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Crude Oil-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来看待市场情绪，而交易商持续观点表明原油价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前的定位和最近的变化相结合，使我们从情绪的角度看待原油 - 看跌的逆势交易偏向。