EUR/USD Rallies to Two-Month-Highs, US Dollar Extends Fall After NFP

US Dollar Outlook Talking Points:

美元展望谈话要点：

• EURUSD has moved up to fresh two-week-highs on the heels of this mornings NFP report.

  欧元兑美元上涨至新的两周 - 在今天上午的非农就业报告之后出现了高潮。

• Going along with that theme, the US Dollar has pushed down to fresh two-month-lows, furthering the week-long trend of weakness in the USD.

  继续这一主题，美元已经推迟至新的两个月 - 低迷，进一步延续了美元长达一周的疲软趋势。

• Just last Thursday the US Dollar was pushing up towards two-year-highs; but a lot can change in a week, and thats what FX traders are looking at right now.

  就在上周四，美元正在推升至两年高点;但很多事情都可能在一周内发生变化，这就是外汇交易员现在正在关注的问题。

US Dollar Drop Continues After NFP

NFP之后美元汇率继续下跌

US Dollar weakness has continued as sellers have pushed the currency to fresh two-month-lows, breaching below a batch of support that came-in earlier this week around the prior April swing-lows. At the source of this weeks move has been the fast change around US rate expectations for 2019. Coming into this year, the Fed had forecast two hikes for this year. At this point, markets are looking for as many as three cuts, marking a big change-of-pace as a number of risk items have emerged.

由于卖家将货币推升至新的两个月低位，突破本周早些时候的一批支撑位，美元疲软持续。之前的四月摆动低点。本周来源一直是美国2019年利率预期的快速变化。到今年为止，美联储预测今年会有两次加息。在这一点上，市场正在寻求多达三次削减，随着一系列风险项目的出现，这标志着一个大的变化。

The US Dollar is now testing below trend-line support from the ascending triangle formation that had helped to hold the lows since last September. This exposes deeper support potential at areas such as 96.47, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011-2017 major move; or perhaps even the confluent area around the 96.00-level which was last in-play as support in February and March.

美元正在测试低于趋势线支撑位于自去年9月以来帮助维持低位的上升三角形形态。这在96.47等区域暴露出更深的支撑潜力，这是2011 - 2017年重大举措的23.6％斐波纳契折线;或者甚至是在96.00水平附近的汇合区域，这是2月和3月的最后一次支持。

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

美元每日价格图表

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EURUSD Jumps to Resistance at April Highs After US Dollar Drop Extends

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Going along with that continuation of weakness in the US Dollar is a bullish theme that‘s recently shown in EURUSD price action. This was an especially pensive week for the single currency, considering the ECB rate decision on Thursday to go along with a plethora of technical themes. The net response in EURUSD to this week’s batch of risk has been a move thats probably surprising to many, as the pair has continued to march-higher on the chart after the failed bearish breakout from last week.

继续美国经济持续疲软美元是一个看涨主题，最近在欧元兑美元的价格走势中显示出来。考虑到欧洲央行对T的利率决定，对于单一货币而言，这是一个特别忧郁的一周ursday伴随着大量的技术主题。欧元兑美元对本周风险的净反应一直是一个可能令许多人感到意外的举动，因为在上周失败的看跌突破后该货币对继续走高。

As looked at on Tuesday, bullish aspirations were beginning to show on the EURUSD chart; and the support and resistance zones shown in that article continue to hold bearing. The resistance zone from 1.1250-1.1262 helped to cap the advance into this morning‘s NFP report, after which price action made a quick run up to the next resistance area at 1.1325. And yesterday’s ECB rate decision assisted with the further development of that topside theme, as a quick pullback found support in a key zone that runs from 1.1187-1.1212. Also assisting with that support is a prior bearish trend-line that was taken out earlier this week.

正如周二所看到的那样，看涨的愿望开始显示在欧元兑美元的图表上;并且该条所示的支撑和阻力区继续承受。阻力位从1.1250-1.1262帮助限制了今早的非农就业报告的上涨，此后价格行动快速上行至下一阻力位1.1325。昨天的欧洲央行利率决定有助于该上行主题的进一步发展，因为快速回调在1.1187-1.1212的关键区域获得支撑。本周早些时候也提供了先前的看跌趋势线。

EURUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

欧元兑美元四小时价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写