EURUSD Testing Critical 18-Month Resistance - Will it Hold？

TALKING POINTS – EURUSD FORECAST, EURUZONE DATA, FED MONETARY POLICY

谈话要点 - 欧元兑美元预测，欧元区数据，联邦货币政策

• EURUSD may fall after Eurozone price growth data is published

  欧元兑美元可能会下跌欧元区价格增长数据公布

• Losses may be reversed if Powells speech contains dovish tones

  如果鲍威尔的演讲包含鸽派音调，损失可能会逆转

• Slowing global growth prospects pressuring central bank hawks

  全球经济增长前景放缓迫使中央银行鹰派压力

EURUSD will likely experience higher-than-usual volatility in the next 24 hours as critical Eurozone CPI data is published along with US economic data and a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Since economic data out of Europe has been tending to underperform relative to economists expectations for a few months now, it is likely price growth data will fall in-line with prevailing trends.

欧元兑美元在未来24小时内可能会出现高于平时的波动，因为欧元区的CPI数据与美国经济数据和美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔致辞。由于欧洲经济数据相对于经济学家预期几个月趋于表现不佳，因此价格增长数据可能会与现行趋势一致。

Disappointing US ISM data earlier today sent the US Dollar lower across all its major counterparts as markets priced in a greater probability of a cut from the Fed. The USD Index subsequently experienced an almost 0.50 percent drop. EURUSD promptly spiked and reentered 18-month descending resistance not reached since March. The critical question then is whether or not the roof will hold.

令人失望今天早些时候的美国ISM数据使得所有主要货币的美元走低，因为市场更有可能从美联储降息。美元指数随后下跌近0.50％。欧元兑美元迅速飙升并重新进入自3月以来未能达到的18个月下行阻力位。那么关键的问题是屋顶是否会成立。

If market conditions sour and the outlook continues to worsen to such a degree that the Fed cuts interest rates, by that point market participants would likely be already putting a premium on liquidity over chasing yields. The US Dollar in this regard may actually be buoyed by investors looking to reduce their exposure cycle-linked assets and instead are searching for the warm embrace of the world reserve currency.

如果市场状况恶化且前景继续恶化到这样的美联储降低利率的程度，到那时市场参与者可能已经在追逐收益率方面对流动性进行了溢价。在这方面，美元实际上可能受到希望减少与风险周期相关的资产的投资者的支持，而是寻求对世界储备货币的温暖拥抱。

EURUSD would then likely retreat from its bold jump and continue trading below the 18-month roof. It is also worth noting that the fundamental outlook for Europe still remains grim, and the upcoming ECB meeting will not likely have the feathers of hawks be the quill with which monetary policy is written. Dovish undertones from the ECB are expected in addition to a downward revision for European growth prospects.

EURUSD会然后可能会从大胆的跳跃中退出并继续在18个月的屋顶下交易。同样值得注意的是，欧洲的基本前景仍然严峻，即将召开的欧洲央行会议也不一定会将鹰派的羽毛作为货币政策的主旨。 Dovish的底色预计欧洲央行将对欧洲经济增长前景进行下调。

CHART OF THE DAY: DXY USD INDEX PLUNGES, EURUSD TESTS 18-MONTH RESISTANCE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH

每日图表：DXY美元指数走势，欧元兑美元自第一时间以来一直受到18个月的阻力位预测3月