Top 5 Events: Q119 UK GDP & GBPUSD Price Forecast

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

- The Q119 UK GDP report is due on Friday, May 10 at 08:30 GMT; consensus forecasts foresee a rebound in both quarterly and yearly growth rates.

- Q119英国国内生产总值报告将于5月10日星期五格林威治标准时间08:30公布;市场普遍预测可预见季度和年度增长率的反弹。

- GBPUSD prices recently broke the downtrend from the March and April 2019 swing highs, but gains have been limited by prior trend support turned resistance.

- 英镑兑美元价格近期突破2019年3月和4月的下跌趋势，但涨势受到先前趋势的限制支持转为阻力。

- Retail traders are currently net-long GBPUSD and recent positioning changes point to more losses in the near-term.

- 零售交易者目前是净多头英镑兑美元，近期的定位变化表明短期内会出现更多亏损。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

星期一美国东部时间7:30 /格林威治标准时间11:30 30日参加FX周向网络研讨会，我们将讨论未来几天的顶级事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

05/10 FRIDAY | 08:30 GMT | GBP Gross Domestic Product (1Q P)

05/10周五|格林尼治标准时间08:30 |英镑国内生产总值（1季度P）

Brexit tensions may have settled down in recent weeks after the deadline was pushed back to October 31, 2019. But before then, there were signs that the UK economy was finding its footing, in line with developments seen across the developed world. Given data from G7 economies, it appears that global growth hit a rut at the end of January and the beginning of February, before ending Q119 on stronger footing.

在最后期限推迟到2019年10月31日之后的最近几周，英国脱欧紧张局势可能已经稳定下来。但在此之前，有迹象表明根据发达国家的发展情况，英国经济正在寻找立足点。根据G7经济体的数据，看起来全球经济增长在1月底和2月初达到了一个棘手的状态，在结束Q119之前就已经站稳脚跟。

Data from the end of the first quarter showed noticeable improvement, particularly relative to one year prior: March UK industrial production grew by 0.5%, up from 0.1% in February (y/y); and March UK manufacturing production grew by 1.1%, up from 0.6% in February (y/y). Meanwhile, March UK retail sales (ex-auto fuel) added 6.2% over the prior month after growing by 3.8% in February; like the US economy, the UK economy is highly dependent on consumption to fuel growth trends.

数据从年底开始第一季度显着改善，特别是相对于一年前的水平：3月英国工业生产增长0.5％，高于2月的0.1％（同比）; 3月份英国制造业产值增长1.1％，高于2月份的0.6％（同比）。与此同时，3月份英国零售额（前汽车燃料）较上月增长6.2％，而2月增长3.8％;与美国经济一样，英国经济高度依赖消费来推动增长趋势。

Overall, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the UK, a gauge of economic data momentum, gained from -25.3 to 16.4 over the course of the first quarter. Accordingly, the Bloomberg News consensus forecast for the Q1‘19 UK GDP report calls for quarterly growth at 0.5% from 0.2% and yearly growth at 1.8% from 1.4%. If the Q1’19 UK GDP report comes in at 1.8% y/y, this will be the fastest rate of growth for the UK since Q417 (1.8% as well).

总体而言，衡量经济数据动力的英国花旗经济惊喜指数上涨在第一季度从-25.3到16.4。因此，彭博新闻对第19季度英国GDP报告的共识预测称，季度增长率为0.5％，从0.2％增长到0.5％，年增长率从1.4％增长到1.8％。如果Q1'19英国GDP报告同比增长1.8％，这将是自2017年第四季度以来英国最快的增长率（也是1.8％）。

Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, GBPJPY, GBPUSD

需要关注的对象：EURGBP，GBPJPY，GBPUSD

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Daily Timeframe (June 2018 to May 2019) (Chart 1)

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Since the bearish outside engulfing bar on June 14, 2018, GBPUSD has closed all but 14 days trading between 1.2660 and 1.3365 – approximately 94% of the past eleven-months within the range. GBPUSD prices have been quite choppy in recent days: price has broken the downtrend from the March and April swing highs; but price has been rejected at former uptrend support off the December 2018 low.

自6月14日看跌外围吞没酒吧以来， 2018年，英镑兑美元在1.2660和1.3365之间的14天交易中全部关闭 - 在过去的11个月中约为94％。最近几天英镑兑美元价格一路波动：价格突破了3月和4月摆动高点的下行趋势;但价格在2018年12月低点之前的上升趋势支撑位被拒绝。

For a more complete overview of the GBP-crosses, see Currency Strategist James Stanleys recent note, Sterling Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Tests Support at Prior Resistance.

有关英镑交叉的更完整概述，请参阅货币策略师James Stanleys最近的一份报告，Sterling Technical Analysis ：英镑兑美元在先前阻力位上测试支撑。

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBPUSD Price Forecast (May 6, 2019) (Chart 2)

IG客户情绪指数：英镑兑美元价格预测（2019年5月6日）（图2）

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GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 57.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.33 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 11.4% higher than yesterday and 31.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.6% lower than yesterday and 38.5% higher from last week.

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We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆势观点人群情绪，以及交易者净多头表明英镑兑美元价格可能上涨继续下降。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们对英镑兑美元看跌的逆势交易偏好更为强烈。