AUDUSD Outlook Hinges on RBA Meeting Amid Bets for 25bp Rate-Cut

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

交易新闻：澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）利率决定

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision may trigger increased volatility in the AUD/USD exchange rate amid speculation for a 25bp rate-cut.

澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）的利率决定可能会引发澳大利亚储备银行的波动加剧市场猜测澳元兑美元汇率下调25个基点。

It remains to be seen if the RBA will reduce the official cash rate (OCR) ahead of the Federal election on May 18 as Governor Philip Lowe & Co. argue ‘a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to support the economy through a depreciation of the exchange rate and by reducing required interest payments on borrowing, freeing up cash for other expenditure.’

RBA是否会提前降低官方现金利率（OCR）还有待观察作为州长菲利普罗威公司（Philip Lowe＆Co。）在5月18日举行的联邦大选中认为，通过汇率贬值和减少借贷所需的利息支付，可以预期较低的利率水平可以支持经济，从而为其他支出。'

In turn, a 25bp rate-cut along with a material change in the forward-guidance for monetary policy is likely to produce headwinds for the Australian dollar, but more of the same from the RBA may fuel a larger rebound in AUD/USD as market participants scale back bets for lower interest rates.

反过来，25个基点的降息以及货币政策前瞻指引的重大变化可能会对澳元产生阻力，但是随着市场参与者缩减对低利率的押注，澳大利亚央行的相同数据可能会推动澳元兑美元大幅反弹。

Sign up and join DailyFX Analyst Daniel Dubrovsky LIVE to cover the RBA interest rate decision.

注册并加入DailyFX分析师Daniel Dubrovsky LIVE to覆盖澳联储利率决定。

Impact that the RBA rate decision has had on AUD/USD during the last meeting

上次会议期间澳联储利率决定对澳元/美元的影响

April 2019Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

期间 数据已发布 估算 实际 点差变化（赛后1小时） 点差变化（赛后结束赛事） APR2019 04/02/2019 03:30:00 GMT 1.50％ 1.50％ -24 -34 2019年4月保留澳大利亚银行（RBA）利率决定

AUD/USD 5-Minute Chart

澳元/美元5分钟图

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.50% in April, with the central bank still endorsing a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘growth in household consumption is being affected by the protracted period of weakness in real household disposable income and the adjustment in housing markets.’ The remarks suggest the RBA is in no rush to alter the forward-guidance as the‘low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy,’ and it seems as though the central bank will stick to the sidelines ahead of the upcoming elections in May as Governor Philip Lowe & Co. pledge to ‘monitor developments and set monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and achieve the inflation target over time.’

澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）保持不变官方现金利率（OCR）在4月创下1.50％的历史新低，央行仍然支持对货币政策采取观望态度，因为“家庭消费增长受到长期疲软期的影响”。实际家庭可支配收入和房地产市场调整。“这些言论表明澳大利亚央行并不急于改变前瞻指引，因为”低利率水平继续支持澳大利亚经济“，似乎由于州长Philip Lowe＆Co。承诺”监督经济发展并制定货币政策以支持经济的可持续增长并实现通胀目标，中央银行将在5月即将举行的选举前坚持观望。

More of the same from the RBA dragged on the Australian dollar, with AUD/USD slipping below the 0.7100 handle to close the day at 0.7071. Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News.

澳大利亚央行拖累澳元走势，澳元/美元跌破0.7100关口，收盘于0.7071。使用DailyFX交易新闻高级指南了解更多信息。

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

澳元/美元汇率每日图表

• Keep in mind, the AUD/USD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.7168), with the exchange rate marking another failed attempt to break/close above the moving average in April.

  请记住，货币市场闪电崩盘后澳元/美元反弹受到200日均线（0.7168）的限制，汇率标志再次失败试图突破/收盘于4月份移动均线上方。

• In turn, AUD/USD may continue to give back the rebound from the 2019-low (0.6745) as the wedge/triangle formation in both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appear to be unraveling following the break of the March-low (0.7003); next area of interest comes in around 0.6850 (78.6% expansion).

  反过来，澳元兑美元可能会继续从2019年的低点反弹（0.6745）因为价格和相对强弱指数（RSI）的楔形/三角形形态在3月低点（0.7003）突破后似乎正在解开;下一个关注区域约为0.6850（扩张78.6％）。

• However, lack of momentum to break/close below the 0.6950 (61.8% expansion) hurdle may trigger a larger rebound in AUD/USD as it attempts to fill the gap from earlier this week, with a move back above the 0.7020 (50% expansion) region opening up the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7110 (78.6% retracement).

  然而，缺乏动力突破/收盘跌破0.6950（扩大61.8％）障碍可能引发澳元/美元大幅反弹，因为它试图填补本周早些时候的缺口，并回升至0.7020（50％扩张）区间以上开盘斐波纳契重叠在0.7090附近（78.6％回撤位）至0.7110（78.6％回撤位）。