Gold Prices Surge on US GDP Data, Chart Still Warns of Topping

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

黄金和原油谈话要点：

• Gold prices rise as Treasury yield and Dollar fall on US GDP data

  随着国债收益率和美元汇率下跌，黄金价格上涨关于美国GDP数据

• Crude oil prices sink as Trump claims OPEC agrees to output boost

  原油价格因特朗普声称石油输出国组织同意提高产量而下跌

• US personal income & spending, PCE inflation data now in focus

  美国个人收入和支出，PCE通胀数据现已成为焦点

Gold prices posted the largest daily gain in nearly two months as first-quarter US GDP data weighed on Treasury bond yields and the Dollar. That bolstered the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets. Not surprisingly, that spoke directly to the yellow metal.

黄金价格创下近两个月以来的最大涨幅由于第一季度美国GDP数据打压国债收益率和美元。这增强了无息和反法定资产的相对吸引力。毫不奇怪，这与黄金直接对话。

A rosy headline number masked internal weakness: much of the rise was accounted for by volatile factors like inventories and trade, where a drop in imports was a bigger contributor than a rise in exports. Meanwhile, private consumption – the main engine of US growth – cooled for a third consecutive quarter.

一个美好的标题数字掩盖了内部的弱点：大部分涨幅是由库存和交易等波动性因素造成的进口增长的贡献大于出口增长。与此同时，私人消费 - 美国经济增长的主要动力 - 连续第三个季度降温。

Crude oil prices sank after US President Donald Trump called on OPEC to lower prices. He tweeted that Saudi Arabia and other producers were “in agreement” about increasing flows, even as the cartel leads a coordinated output cut effort. The WTI benchmark suffered the largest single-session loss yet in 2019.

在美国总统唐纳德特朗普呼吁石油输出国组织降价后，原油价格下跌。他在推文中表示沙特阿拉伯和其他生产商“一致同意”增加流量，即使卡特尔领导协调减产。 WTI基准在2019年遭遇了最大的单期损失。

US INCOME AND SPENDING, PCE INFLATION DATA MAY HURT COMMODITIES

美国的收入和支出，PCE通胀数据可能会产生商品

Looking ahead, the March set of US personal income and spending data headlines an otherwise quiet data docket. Improvement is expected but deepening underperformance in recent macro news-flow warns of disappointment risk.

展望未来，3月份的美国个人收入和支出数据标志着一个平静的数据。预计会有所改善，但近期宏观新闻流程的表现不佳会引发失望风险。

The Feds favored PCE inflation gauge may be the most eye-catching bit of the report. It is set to show that core price growth slowed to 1.7 percent on-year last month, marking the softest print in over a year. Such an outcome would hint at sagging economic momentum.

美联储赞成的PCE通胀指标可能是报告中最引人注目的一点。它将显示上个月核心价格增长放缓至1.7％，这是一年多以来最疲软的印刷品。这样的结果将暗示经济势头下滑。

Soft outcomes may stoke global slowdown fears, inspiring risk aversion. That might weigh on cycle-sensitive oil prices and drive haven demand for the Greenback, countering whatever support gold might have hoped to enjoy from a downshift in lending rates.

疲软的结果可能引发全球经济放缓的担忧，激发风险厌恶情绪。这可能会对周期敏感的油价产生影响，并推动对美元的避险需求，从而打击了这一趋势支持黄金可能希望从贷款利率降档中获益。

See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter!

查看最新的黄金和原油预测，了解第二季度会推动价格走势！

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

黄金技术分析

Gold prices bounced to retest support-turned-resistance at the neckline of a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) chart pattern, now at 1289.59. A daily close back above it would set the stage for a challenge of the 1303.70-09.12 zone. Near-term support is in the 1260.80-63.76 area, with a break below that eyeing 1235.11-38.00 region next. The H&S setup implies a measured downside objective at 1215.00.

黄金价格在看跌的头肩（H＆S）图表模式的颈线重新测试支撑位转向阻力位反弹，现在1289.59。每日收盘高于它将为1303.70-09.12区域的挑战奠定基础。近期支撑位于1260.80-63.76区间，下方突破1235.11-38.00区域。 H＆S设置意味着下行目标为1215.00。

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

原油技术分析

Crude oil prices turned lower as expected, dropping to support guiding them higher since December. Bearish reversal confirmed on a daily close below this boundary – now at 63.00 – targets 60.39 next. Alternatively, a rebound that takes prices back above resistance in the 66.09-67.03 area may extend into a retest of the $70/bbl figure.

原油价格转跌如预期的那样走低，自去年12月开始下跌以支撑他们走高。看跌逆转在每日收盘价低于此边界时确认 - 现在为63.00 - 下一个目标为60.39。或者，在66.09-67.03区域内反弹至价格上方的反弹可能延续至70美元/桶的重新测试。

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