Gold Forecast Turning Bullish as Price Returns Back into Triangle

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

- Gold prices weathered the US Dollars rally to fresh 2019 highs this week; Gold had bottomed out by Tuesday.

- 本周黄金价格经历了美元反弹至2019年新高;黄金已经在周二触底反弹。

- It appears that the US Dollar has lost the tug-of-war with Gold prices; it was unlikely that both would continue to move in the same direction.

- 看来美元已经失去了与黄金价格的拉锯战;两者都不太可能继续向同一方向发展。

- A return into a consolidation can underpin a “false breakout,” which, if so, may mean that Gold prices may have more room to run higher.

- 回归整合可以支撑“假突破”，如果是这样，可能意味着黄金价格可能有更大的上涨空间。

Looking for longer-term forecasts on Gold and Silver prices？ Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

寻找黄金和白银价格的长期预测？查看DailyFX交易指南。

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The Gold price outlook may be improving. With the US Dollar (via the DXY Index) falling after the Q1‘19 US GDP report, Gold prices have been able to push to their highest level in two weeks. Although the US economy did shrug off early-year concerns that the slowdown was morphing into a recession, the internals of the GDP report simply weren’t that impressive: consumer consumption slowing; business investment falling; and housing formation contracting.

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As such, despite the impressive headline figure, that there are indications that the US GDP reports appeal is superficial. Now, traders may have little reason to think that the Federal Reserve will admit their dovish turn this year was wrong; instead, it seems very likely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will use his press conference next week at the April FOMC meeting to reinforce the notion that rates will be on hold for the remainder of this year.

因此，尽管标题数字令人印象深刻，但有迹象表明美国GDP报告的吸引力是肤浅的。现在，交易员可能没有理由认为美联储将承认今年的温和转变是错误的;相反，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔很可能会在下周的4月FOMC会议上使用他的新闻发布会，以加强关于今年剩余时间利率将暂停的观点。

In the last Gold update it was noted that “global growth expectations are front and center once again (particularly out of Europe), while Brexit headlines have started to reemerge in the newswires. An EU-US trade war revolving around agriculture may be brewing. Gold bears may not be able to press their luck much further given these lingering concerns.” This sentiment has only been reinforced by Golds price action in the second half of this week.

在上一次黄金更新中，人们注意到“全球经济增长预期再次位居前列（尤其是欧洲以外），而英国脱欧的新闻报道已经开始重新出现在新闻专线上。围绕农业的欧美贸易战正在酝酿之中。考虑到这些挥之不去的担忧，金熊可能无法进一步推动他们的运气。”这种情绪只会在本周下半周的黄金价格行动中得到加强。

Gold Price Technical Forecast: Daily Chart (April 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

黄金价格技术预测：每日图表（2018年4月至2019年4月）（图1）/ p>

Earlier this week it was noted that “If the Gold technical outlook is going to revert from its bearish bias following the symmetrical triangle breakdown last week, the first necessary condition would be to get back above one key level: the daily 8-EMA at 1279. In the process of doing so, Gold prices would return back above the early-January/initial 2019 low around 1276.51.”

These conditions have been met, and as such, the Gold price technical outlook has turned bullish in the short-term. A return into the triangle consolidation underscores a “false breakout” condition, which suggests that Gold prices may have more room to run higher. A close above the daily 21-EMA today (1286) would reinforce the near-term bullish outlook; a move back towards triangle resistance near 1300 would be eyed by the end of April.

这些条件已经实现，因此，黄金价格技术前景在短期内转为看涨。回归三角形整合突显了“假突破”状态，这表明黄金价格可能有更大的上涨空间。今日收盘价高于每日21-EMA（1286）将加强近期看涨前景; 4月底将回归1300附近的三角形阻力位。

IG Client Sentiment Index: Spot Gold Price Forecast (April 26, 2019) (Chart 2)

IG客户情绪指数：现货黄金价格预测（2019年4月26日）（图2）

Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 75.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.08 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.9% lower than yesterday and 5.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.5% lower than yesterday and 8.2% lower from last week.

现货黄金：零售交易者数据显示，75.5％的交易者为净多头，交易者多头做空比率为3.08比1.交易者数量净多头较昨日下跌2.9％，较上周下跌5.4％，而交易商净空头数较昨日下跌11.5％，较上周下跌8.2％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.