Gold Price Weekly Forecast: Outlook Weakens as Brexit, Trade War Risks Subside

Fundamental Forecast for the Gold: Neutral

黄金基本面预测：中性

- Gold prices took a big hit at the end of the week when measures of implied volatility sunk across bond, currencies, and equities markets – a sign that risks are seemingly subsiding.

- 当本周末黄金价格受到重创时隐含波动率的下跌跨越债券，货币和股票市场 - 这表明风险似乎正在下降。

- Brexit headlines should quiet down over the coming week with UK parliament on holiday until April 23.

英国脱欧头条新闻应该会在未来一周安静下来，英国议会将在4月23日休假。 / p>

- The IG Client Sentiment Indexshows that retail traders were buying Gold into its dip at the end of the week.

- IG客户情绪指数显示零售交易商在本周末购买黄金。

See our long-term forecasts for Gold and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides.

查看我们的长期使用DailyFX交易指南预测黄金和其他主要货币。

Gold Price Week in Review

黄金价格周回顾

Gold prices started last week on stable footing, but stability had turned into losses by the time Friday was finished. Gold in USD-terms (XAUUSD) fell only by -0.06% on the week but had dropped by -1.51% from Thursdays high, down to 1290.65 per ounce. Amid the swing back in risk appetite towards higher yielding, higher beta currencies and risk-correlated assets, Gold in AUD-terms (XAUAUD) and EUR-terms (XAUEUR) dropped meaningfully over the course of the entire week, falling by -1.06% and -0.84%, respectively.

黄金价格最后开始本周稳定的基础，但在周五结束时稳定性已经变成了损失。以美元计价的黄金（XAUUSD）本周仅下跌了-0.06％，但从周四的高点下跌了-1.51％，跌至每盎司1290.65。在风险偏好回升至收益率较高，β汇率较高且风险相关资产回升的情况下，澳元兑美元汇率（XAUAUD）和欧元汇率（XAUEUR）在整个一周内有意义地下跌，跌幅为-1.06％分别为-0.84％。

Brexit News to See Limited Headlines

英国脱欧新闻看到有限的头条新闻

The major driver in the second half of the week was the agreement between the EU and the UK that the Brexit deadline would be pushed to October 31, 2019, with a review by June 30. In response, traders took the liberty of pricing out the risk of a surprise shock to markets over the next several months, sending various measures of implied volatility tumbling in response – not just those limited to UK-related instruments but various measures of volatility across global bonds, currencies, and equities.

本周下半周的主要推动因素是欧盟与英国达成协议，将英国脱欧截止日期推迟至2019年10月31日，并于6月30日进行审查。作为回应，交易商冒昧地定价未来几个市场意外冲击的风险几个月来，发出各种隐含波动率的指标 - 不仅仅局限于英国相关工具，而是全球债券，货币和股票的各种波动性指标。

While the shift swings attention back towards UK domestic political dynamics and cross-party talks between UK Prime Minister and Tory party leader Theresa May and Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn, the spotlight may not appear that bright this week. Why？ UK parliament is out of session until April 23 due to the upcoming Easter week holiday.

英国首相之间的英国国内政治动态和跨党派会谈引发了人们的关注保守党领袖特蕾莎·梅和工党领袖杰里米·科尔宾，本周聚光灯可能看起来不那么光明。为什么？由于即将到来的复活节假期，英国议会将在4月23日之前休会。

Trade War Influences Ebb and Flow

贸易战影响衰退和流量

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Inflation Data Over the Coming Week

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The forthcoming economic calendar doesnt contain data or events that are directly tied to central banks, and therefore, opportunities for data-driven price action in Gold are limited in the coming week. But if there are data that could influence Gold prices, they will be the inflation data due out from across the globe: from New Zealand on Tuesday; from the UK, Eurozone, and Canada on Wednesday; and from Japan on Thursday. Typically, rates of higher inflation tend to attract investors to Gold as a store of a value; but in an environment marked by the perception of receding global risks, Gold prices may not fine a lifeline in these data this time around.

即将到来的经济日历中不包含与中央银行直接相关的数据或事件，因此，数据驱动的价格行动机会黄金在下周有限。但如果有可能影响黄金价格的数据，它们将是来自全球的通胀数据：周二来自新西兰;周三来自英国，欧元区和加拿大;星期四从日本来。通常情况下，较高的通胀率往往会吸引投资者将黄金作为一种价值储存;但在一个以全球风险消退为标志的环境中，黄金价格可能不会在这些数据中成为生命线。

Gold Futures Positioning Holding Net-Long

黄金期货定位持有净多头

Finally, looking at positioning, according to the CFTC‘s COT for the week ended April 9, speculators increased their net-long Gold positions to 105.4K contracts, up from the 94.6K net-long contracts held in the week prior. Net-long Gold positioning has ebbed and flowed over the past few months, but there haven’t been any significant changes: traders held 111K contracts the week of December 25; and 104.9K contracts the week of February 12.

最后，根据CFTC截至4月9日当周的COT，投机者将净多头黄金头寸增加至105.4万合约，高于94.6万净值在前一周举行的长期合约。净多单旧的定位在过去几个月已经消退和流动，但没有任何重大变化：交易商在12月25日当周持有111K合约; 2月12日当周104.9K合约。