Krona, Krone Eye ECB, FOMC, Outcome of Brexit - Volatility Ahead

NORDIC FX, NOK, SEK WEEKLY OUTLOOK

NORDIC FX，NOK，SEK每周展望

• NOK and SEK to experience unusual volatility in the week ahead

  NOK和SEK经历异常波动提前一周

• ECB rate decision, FOMC meeting minutes, Brexit main event risks

  欧洲央行利率决议，FOMC会议纪要，英国退欧主要事件风险

• The Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone also eye domestic CPI data

  瑞典克朗和挪威克朗也关注国内CPI数据

The Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone face major external-event risk this week from the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, the ECB rate decision and commentary from Mario Draghi as well as the showdown of Brexit. Local CPI data out of Norway and Sweden will be also be released throughout the week in addition to other peripheral economic indicators.

瑞典克朗和挪威克朗本周从FOMC会议纪要，欧洲央行利率决定公布后面临重大外部事件风险和马里奥德拉吉的评论以及英国退欧的摊牌。除了其他外围经济指标之外，挪威和瑞典的本地CPI数据也将在本周发布。

US-BASED EVENT RISK: FOMC MEETING MINUTES, ECONOMIC DATA

基于美国的事件风险：FOMC会议纪要，经济数据

USDSEK and USDNOK will be eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday along with several key economic indicators spread throughout the week. The publication from the Fed will give investors a better idea of the central banks outlook for domestic and global growth, both of which have been declining.

USDSEK和USDNOK将关注周三公布的FOMC会议纪要以及本周几个主要经济指标。美联储的出版物将让投资者更好地了解中央银行对国内和全球经济增长前景的看法。两者都在下降。

The Fed has reiterated that it is in wait-and-see mode and has emphasized a patient approach to raising rates while the outlook remains unclear. If the meeting minutes reveal dovish overtones, it could send the US Dollar lower, though the Greenback may quickly reverse and catch a haven bid as investors panic over why the Fed has become more downbeat.

美联储已经重申它在观望模式并强调了患者加息的方法，而前景仍不明朗。如果会议纪要显示温和的暗示，可能会导致美元走低，尽管由于投资者对美联储变得更加悲观的原因感到恐慌，美元可能会迅速逆转并获得避险买单。

Monday, April 08 – US Factory Orders (FEB), Durable Goods Orders (FEB F)

周一，08年4月 - 美国工厂订单（FEB），耐用品订单（FEB F）

Wednesday, April 10 – FOMC Meeting Minutes, US CPI (YoY) (March), Ex Food and Energy

4月10日星期三 - FOMC会议纪要，美国CPI（同比）（3月），Ex食物与能源

Friday: University of Michigan Sentiment (APR P)

周五：密歇根大学情绪（APR P）

Thursday, April 11 – US Initial Jobless Claims (APR 06)

4月11日星期四 - 美国首次申请失业救济人数（APR 06）

EUROPEAN-BASED EVENT RISK: ECB, BREXIT

基于欧洲的事件风险：欧洲央行，BREXIT

The ECB will announce its rate decision this week with markets pricing in a hold on rates. However, what investors may be more interested in is the commentary from central bank President Mario Draghi. At the last meeting on March 7, USDSEK jumped over one percent and reached a 17-year high with NOK following a similar pattern.

欧洲央行将宣布其利率决定本周市场定价维持利率不变。然而，投资者可能更感兴趣的是中央银行行长马里奥德拉吉的评论。在3月7日的最后一次会议上，美元兑日元上涨超过百分之一，并且在类似模式下跟随NOK达到了17年来的最高点。

USD/SEK Reaction to March 7 ECB Rate Decision – Daily Chart

USD / SEK对3月7日欧洲央行利率决定的反应 - 每日图表

This is because Draghi‘s outlook for Eurozone growth – Norway and Sweden’s largest trading partner – was substantially cut along with inflation forecasts due to the Continent‘s unexpectedly rapid deceleration. As export-driven economies, Norway and Sweden’s performance is closely tied to growth trajectory of core Western Europe. As such, trends in SEK and NOK are also a reflection of European growth.

这这是因为德拉吉对欧元区经济增长的前景 - 挪威和瑞典最大的贸易伙伴 - 由于欧洲大陆出人意料地迅速减速而大幅削减通胀预测。作为出口导向型经济体，挪威和瑞典的表现与西欧核心的增长轨迹密切相关。因此，瑞典克朗和挪威克朗的趋势也反映了欧洲的增长。

Another major event risk is Brexit. Unless Theresa May is able to secure an extension, the UK will be set to leave the EU on April 12. GBP traders are biting their nails as the probability of a no-deal Brexit continues to loom. On April 10, an emergency summit will be held with the 27 other member states to see if the process can be delayed further. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has asked to push the deadline to June 30.

另一个重大事件风险是英国退欧。除非Theresa May能够获得延期，否则英国将于4月12日离开欧盟。由于无交易脱欧的可能性继续显现，英国交易员正在咬指甲。 4月10日，将与其他27个成员国举行紧急峰会，以确定该进程是否可以进一步推迟。英国首相特蕾莎·梅已要求将截止日期推迟到6月30日。

Feeling lost on Brexit？ Check out our infographic timeline here!

英国退欧感到失落？查看我们的信息图时间表！

NORDIC-BASED EVENT RISK: CPI, ECONOMIC DATA, CAPITAL SHIFTS IN NORWAYS SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND

基于NORDIC的事件风险：消费者价格指数，经济数据，挪威国际财富基金的资本支出

Local CPI data out of Sweden and Norway will be released roughly in the midst of the other major event risk this week and could end up being overshadowed and distort the impact these indicators would otherwise have under normal circumstances. Swedens economy has been suffering as policymakers attempt to grapple with a frustratingly weak Krona and growing risk from rising household indebtedness.

瑞典和挪威的本地CPI数据将大致在本周其他重大事件风险中间可能最终被黯然失色，并扭曲了这些指标本来会产生的影响。正常情况。瑞典的经济一直在受到影响，因为政策制定者正在努力应对令人沮丧的弱势克朗以及日益增加的家庭负债风险。

In Norway, economic performance has been relatively stronger, and central bank officials recently raised rates and intend on another hike in June. However, the Krones performance may be undercut if global slowdown fears materialize and European affairs further deteriorate. As an export-driven economy with a heavy reliance on the petroleum sector, the Krone and overall economic activity is sensitive to changes in global sentiment.

在挪威，经济表现相对较强，央行官员最近加息并计划在6月再次加息。然而，如果全球经济放缓担忧成为现实，欧洲事务进一步恶化，克朗斯的表现可能会受到削弱。作为一个严重依赖石油部门的出口导向型经济体，克朗和整体经济活动对全球情绪的变化很敏感。

Norway‘s sovereign wealth fund – the largest in the world – recently announced that they are reducing their exposure to emerging markets in the fund and considering adding renewable energy investments. As an oil-linked economy, the fund’s divestment from the cycle-sensitive commodity is perhaps a canary in the coal mine that global risk appetite may wane and put pressure on risk-loving assets and overall economic activity.

挪威的主权财富基金 - 世界上最大的 - 最近宣布他们正在减少对基金新兴市场的投资，并考虑增加可再生能源投资。作为一个与石油有关的经济体，该基金从对周期敏感的商品中撤出可能是煤矿中的一个金丝雀，全球风险偏好可能会减弱，并对喜欢风险的资产和整体经济活动施加压力。

See DailyFXs quarterly forecast about where crude oil prices may be heading in Q2 2019!

见DailyFXs关于2019年第二季度原油价格可能上涨的季度预测！

SWEDISH KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES

SWEDISH KRONA，NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES