EUR/USD Rate to Hold 2019 Range on Another Dismal NFP Report

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Updates to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may heighten the appeal of the dollar as the economy is anticipated to add 180K jobs in March.

Signs of a robust labor market may encourage the Federal Reserve to preserve a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘overall conditions remaining favorable,’ and the central bank may stick to the sidelines at the next interest rate decision on May 1 as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. pledge to ‘be patient in assessing the need for any change in the stance of policy.’

In turn, a print of 180K or greater may spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar, but another below-forecast print may spark a short-term rebound in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to reverse the four rate-hikes from 2018.

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Impact that the U.S. NFP report had on EUR/USD during the last release

February 2019 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased a meager 20K in February after expanding a revised 311K the month prior, while the Unemployment Rate narrowed to 3.8% from 4.0% per annum during the same period even as the Labor Force Participation Rate held steady at 63.2% for the second consecutive month. A deeper look at the report showed Average Hourly Earnings climbing to 3.4% from a revised 3.1% in January despite forecasts for a 3.3% print.

The U.S. dollar struggled to hold its ground following the batch of mixed data prints, with EUR/USD grinding higher throughout the day to close at 1.1232. Review the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News to learn our 8 step strategy.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

• The broader outlook for EUR/USD remains clouded with mixed signals as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap bearish formations from earlier this year after trading to a fresh yearly-low (1.1176).

• Nevertheless, the failed attempt to test the 2019-low (1.1176) along with the lack of momentum to close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) may spur range-bound conditions in EUR/USD, with a break/close back above the 1.1270 (50% expansion) to 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) region raising the risk for a move towards 1.1340 (38.2% expansion).

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• Next area of interest comes in around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) followed by the 1.1430 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1450 (50% retracement), which largely lines up with the March-high (1.1448).

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For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for EUR/USD

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.