简体中文
繁體中文
English
Pусский
日本語
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Bahasa Indonesia
Español
हिन्दी
Filippiiniläinen
Français
Deutsch
Português
Türkçe
한국어
العربية
Abstract:The British pound sterling, is the official currency of the United Kingdom, South Georgia, the South Sandwich Islands, British Antarctic Territory, and the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, which are Crown Dependencies of the United Kingdom.
The British pound sterling, is the official currency of the United Kingdom, South Georgia, the South Sandwich Islands, British Antarctic Territory, and the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, which are Crown Dependencies of the United Kingdom.
The Falkland Islands pound, Gibraltar pound, Saint Helena pound, Jersey pound (JEP), Guernsey pound (GGP), Manx pound, Scotland notes, and Northern Ireland notes are only a few that are tied to the British pound.
According to a new analysis by Monex, a company that specializes in FX payments, the British pound can continue to outperform.
The Bank of England will hike interest rates one last time this cycle in May, as inflation is due to take a steep dive lower.
The Bank is not expected to lower interest rates until at least 2024, according to Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis at Monex. This, along with a more optimistic prognosis for the economy, could support the pound.
At least until rate cuts are in focus, Harvey adds, we think the attention to conditions around growth and for price action.
According to the analyst, UK growth is still stronger than anticipated, and asset valuations, which have been impacted by Brexit and recent political instability, currently appear to be low relative to other developed countries.
Despite the UK's GDP being unchanged in February, the ONS revised up January's growth estimate to indicate a 0.4% increase. When viewed as a whole, it is now obvious that the UK economy will grow in the first quarter of the year.
This contradicts the predictions made by the Bank of England in late 2022 that an economic downturn would start at the end of 2022 and last through the end of 2023.
In contrast, inflation and wage data came in better-than-expected last week, leading both economists and market participants to predict another Bank of England rate hike in May.
According to Harvey, “We have revised our forecast and now anticipate a final 25bp increase at the May meeting, bringing Bank Rate to a terminal level of 4.5%.”
The likelihood of more rate increases by the Bank of England has supported UK bond yields, which in turn encourages capital inflows into the UK and supports the pound sterling.
However, central bank interest rate increases are no longer a major factor, according to Monex, and relative economic performance will be more important moving forward.
Because of this, Harvey writes, “we view the current environment as generally positive for the pound, and as a result, expect to see modest appreciation over the course of 2023.”
According to Monex, UK inflation will decline significantly over the upcoming months, which will ease the country's cost-of-living crisis.
According to Harvey, “the economy continues to add jobs while hiring conditions simultaneously ease, pointing towards a significant reduction in wage pressures and inflation over the coming months.” The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in March.
The UK is expected to have a dramatic decline in CPI, he continues, as a result of the energy price increases from last year being excluded from the consumption basket.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
Dukascopy marks 20 years of excellence in trading, offering JForex, MT4/5, 1,200+ instruments, and global banking, dedicated to trust and innovation.
Track key forex pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/MXN for insights on volatility and market sentiment during this U.S. election week, November 5, 2024.
In the current political climate, understanding the policy differences between the main candidates has become increasingly important. As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the intense rivalry between Trump and Harris not only influences voters' decisions but also determines the future direction of the nation at a crucial time. With voting imminent, voters face two distinctly different governance philosophies and policy directions that impact not only U.S. domestic and foreign policy but also profoundly affect the global investment landscape.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential race approaches, investors worldwide are closely watching potential outcomes and their implications for global markets. While a 269-269 Electoral College tie between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains unlikely, its occurrence would set the stage for an unprecedented period of political uncertainty, triggering a contingent election decided by Congress. Such uncertainty would ripple across forex, stock, and oil markets, where stability and predictability are prized. Here’s a look at how a tie could affect these key financial sectors.