S&P sees corp high-yield default rate doubling by year end

(Reuters) – S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights said on Wednesday that it expects the U.S. trailing 12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate to reach 4% by December, more than double the 1.7% default rate at the end of December 2022.

（路透社）——标准普尔全球评级信用研究与洞察周三表示，预计到 12 月，美国过去 12 个月的投机级企业违约率将达到 4%，是 2022 年 12 月底 1.7% 违约率的两倍多.

“If, as we expect, unemployment rises and discretionary spending erodes, consumer-reliant sectors, which make up roughly half of borrowers in the ‘CCC’ to ‘C’ categories, will suffer most,” S&P analysts wrote.

标准普尔分析师写道：“如果像我们预期的那样，失业率上升，可自由支配的支出减少，那么依赖消费者的行业（约占‘ccc’至‘c’类借款人的一半）将受到最大影响。”

Retail borrowers have driven defaults so far this year, as consumers feel the pinch of inflation and increasing debt burdens, the analysts note.

分析师指出，由于消费者感受到通货膨胀和不断增加的债务负担，今年到目前为止零售借款人导致违约。

Speculative-grade corporate borrowers rated B-minus or lower had roughly $570 billion in floating-rate debt on their books as of Jan. 1.

截至 1 月 1 日，评级为 b- 或更低的投机级企业借款人账面上的浮动利率债务约为 5700 亿美元。

The greatest concentration of floating-rate debt lies among speculative-grade borrowers in high technology, health care, and media and entertainment, among others.

浮动利率债务最集中于高科技、医疗保健、媒体和娱乐等领域的投机级借款人。

Floating-rate debt exposure presents greater liquidity strains on borrowers than fixed-rate debt, as their interest rates move in tandem with the U.S. Federal Reserves rate hikes to combat inflation.

浮动利率债务风险比固定利率债务给借款人带来更大的流动性压力，因为它们的利率与美联储加息以对抗通货膨胀同步。

The S&P analysts said that while they expect the Fed to commit just one more quarter-point rate hike by year-end, it is unlikely the central bank will lower its peak 5.0%-5.25% federal funds rate until the first half of 2024.

标准普尔分析师表示，尽管他们预计美联储将在年底前再加息 25 个基点，但在 2024 年上半年之前，美联储不太可能降低 5.0%-5.25% 的联邦基金利率峰值。

In addition to higher debt-servicing costs, small-to-midsized speculative borrowers face great risk in refinancing this debt at more favorable terms.

除了更高的偿债成本外，中小型投机性借款人在以更优惠的条件为这些债务再融资时面临巨大风险。

Banks are expected to implement stricter lending standards, in part due to the recent regional bank fallout and resulting shakeup of investor confidence.

预计银行将实施更严格的贷款标准，部分原因是最近区域银行的影响以及由此引发的投资者信心动摇。

“While we don‘t at this point expect the reaction to recent events to evolve into a full-on ’credit crunch, some borrowers may find financing options available much more costly or, in some cases, unavailable,” the S&P analysts wrote.

“虽然我们目前预计对近期事件的反应不会演变成全面的‘信贷紧缩’，但一些借款人可能会发现可用的融资方案成本更高，或者在某些情况下无法获得，”标普分析师写道。

(Reporting by Alden Bentley and Matt Tracy; Editing by Leslie Adler)

（alden bentley 和 matt tracy 报道；leslie adler 编辑）