Australia business activity strong in Feb, even as confidence wanes

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australian business conditions remained resilient in February with sales and employment strong, even as confidence took a turn for the worse amid high inflation and rising interest rates.

悉尼（路透社）——尽管在高通胀和利率上升的情况下信心出现恶化，但 2 月份澳大利亚的商业环境仍然保持弹性，销售和就业强劲。

The survey from National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) released on Tuesday showed its index of business conditions dipped one point to +17 in January, still well above its long-run average.

澳大利亚国民银行有限公司 (nab) 周二发布的调查显示，其商业状况指数在 1 月份下降了一个点至 +17，仍远高于其长期平均水平。

The volatile measure of confidence fell back to -4, erasing Januarys bounce to +6.

波动较大的信心指标回落至 -4，抹去了 1 月份的反弹至 +6。

“Overall, the survey confirms the ongoing resilience of the economy through the first months of 2023, though we continue to expect a more material slowdown in demand later in the year when the full effect of rate rises has passed through,” said Alan Oster, NABs chief economist.

“总体而言，调查证实了经济在 2023 年前几个月的持续弹性，尽管我们继续预计今年晚些时候加息的全部影响已经过去时需求将出现更实质性的放缓，”艾伦奥斯特说， nab首席经济学家。

The survey paints a mixed picture for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which cited the strength of business activity as one reason it hiked interest rates to a decade-high of 3.6% this month.

该调查描绘了澳大利亚储备银行 (rba) 喜忧参半的景象，该银行将商业活动的强劲作为本月将利率上调至 3.6% 的十年高位的一个原因。

Markets had thought another two hikes were likely, until turmoil in the U.S. banking sector radically altered thinking on policy tightening worldwide.

市场曾认为可能还会有两次加息，直到美国银行业的动荡从根本上改变了对全球政策收紧的看法。

Now, swaps and futures imply only a minor chance the RBA will lift rates at its April meeting, and suggest it could be done tightening altogether.

现在，掉期和期货暗示澳洲联储在其 4 月的会议上加息的可能性很小，并表明可以完全收紧货币政策。

The survey was conducted from Feb. 20 to 28, so it missed the recent chaos in financial markets after Silicon Valley Banks collapse.

该调查是在 2 月 20 日至 28 日进行的，因此它忽略了最近硅谷银行倒闭后金融市场的混乱。

Conditions were generally upbeat with the surveys measure of sales at a very high +27 in February, supported by historically low unemployment and rapid population growth.

受历史低失业率和人口快速增长的支持，2 月份的销售调查指标总体乐观，达到非常高的 +27。

Measures of employment edged up 1 point to +11, while profitability eased a touch to +14.

就业指标小幅上升 1 点至 +11，而盈利能力略微下降至 +14。

The surveys measure of labour costs ticked up to a quarterly rate of 2.8%, but retail price growth eased to 1.9%.

劳动力成本调查衡量的季度增长率为 2.8%，但零售价格增长率放缓至 1.9%。

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jamie Freed)

（wayne cole 报道；jamie freed 编辑）