Quotes: Global banks under pressure as SVB triggers contagion worries

LONDON (Reuters) – The health of the global banking sector as interest rates rise remained in the spotlight on Tuesday in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

Markets were calmer after two dramatic trading sessions. European banking stocks rallied 1% and a gauge of stress in the banking system retreated from highs seen earlier in the session.

Wall Street futures suggested a positive start for U.S. equities.

But days of wild swings in global markets and hefty losses in bank shares, left the outlook for the sector in focus.

MARKET REACTION:

STOCKS: Wall Street futures broadly higher.BONDS: U.S. Treasury 2-year note yields up 21 basis points at 4.24%

FOREX: The euro was flat at around $1.0728

COMMENTS:

CHRIS CRAWFORD, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, ERIC STURDZA INVESTMENTS

Our view is that SVB has some company-specific features that made it particularly vulnerable, but there are also systemic issues for all banks and the broader economy.

However, the larger problem is one of confidence. Bank customer confidence has eroded with the writedowns and falling stock prices and they have begun to fear for the safety of their deposits. Even if the banks have sufficient capital to absorb the writedowns, the fears can become a self-fulfilling action if enough customers pull deposits, since deposits are a major source of bank funding that can be even larger than the magnitude of the treasury writedowns.

“SVB situation is exacerbated, since it holds substantial deposits for many young tech startups that have been burning cash for years and must rapidly draw down their cash balances to keep their businesses operating since equity capital markets have been largely closed to raising new capital. Banks are now faced with the classic problem that has threatened banks throughout history: a mismatch in terms between assets and liabilities.”

JANE FOLEY, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, RABOBANK, LONDON:

By the time the Fed meets next week, not only are we going to have clarification on whether or not they‘re still going to use monetary policy to fight inflation and use these other tools to deal with the financial stress, but we’ll also by then have a far better understanding as to what the US Treasury and the Fed announced over the weekend, whether or not thats enough.

Those announcements over the weekend were there to stop the systemic risk. They were there to stop a run on the banks. Hopefully well go over the next few days, whether or not the financial system is going to calm down or not. And that is going to be instrumental, I think, for driving all asset classes.

“Quite clearly the markets and in the state of flux and uncertainty. And I think the market needs time to assess the safety of the rest of the financial system.”

PATRICK GHALI, MANAGING PARTNER OF HEDGE FUND ADVISORY FIRM SUSSEX PARTNERS, ZURICH

I think the markets are very fragile at the moment and grasping at straws. In such an environment anything can be the catalyst. Today everyone is grappling with what this means for the path of rates and hence inflation.

I doubt this was style drift by one bank, but rather something that other players also did when rates were at 0. Same goes for PE and private funds. More and more of these issues will start popping up, and I also think that we will start to see that the economy is perhaps less solid than what some people think. I expect savings and the consumer to get exhausted soon, and hence earnings to get revised down etc. All this bodes badly for markets which are still expensive.

“For short sellers the danger is in the irrational and volatile markets we now have. You can easily get squeezed in such an environment, until fundamentals come to the fore, and no one knows when that is. Some will get it right though and make a lot of money. Predicting who that is will be the hard part.”

LUCA FINA, HEAD OF EQUITY, GENERALI INSURANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT, MILAN

Notwithstanding the movement the sector had in the past couple of trading days, the read across for European Banks should in theory be very limited given the peculiarity of the SVB financial business, the different regulatory framework and the solid liquidity ratios / buffers of the big Euro banks.

However, the recent events remind investors how complex the sector is, further eroding their confidence in it. Furthermore, the scenario of further increases in rates, that would have improved the profitability of the sector, could be partially at risk, although given the very low valuation and good earnings momentum would suggest that it is far from being priced for perfection.

“In general, looking at the European markets in the last few trading sessions, it seems more a generalized ”futures driven risk off move and a profit taking affecting almost all sectors after a strong run year-to-date, clearly with the banks as epicenter, rather than a selective liquidation based on the possible direct and indirect implications of the SVB case.

“Investors seemed to be worried that the effects of such steep and coordinated tightenings are now emerging and that central banks will have to deal with them.”

(Reporting by the Markets and Finance Team; Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe)