Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauge plunges unexpectedly

(Reuters) – Manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region dropped off sharply and unexpectedly in February, and goods producers reported input cost increases accelerated for the first time in 10 months while their own price increases slowed dramatically, signaling margin pressures were building.

（路透社）—— 2 月份大西洋中部地区的制造业活动意外急剧下降，商品生产商报告说，投入成本的增长在 10 个月来首次加速，而他们自己的价格涨幅大幅放缓，表明利润率压力正在增加。

The Philadelphia Federal Reserves monthly manufacturing index plunged to -24.3 this month from -8.9 in January, belying expectations among economists for a third straight monthly improvement. The median estimate in a Reuters survey of economists was for -7.4, and the reading was more than twice as weak as the lowest estimate in the poll.

费城联储月度制造业指数从 1 月份的 -8.9 跌至本月的 -24.3，超出了经济学家连续第三个月改善的预期。路透调查经济学家的预估中值为-7.4，比调查中的最低预估低两倍以上。

Indexes tracking new orders, shipments, delivery times and employee headcount all weakened.

追踪新订单、出货量、交货时间和员工人数的指数均走弱。

Meanwhile, the surveys two measures of prices, those paid by producers and those they charge their customers – both closely watched inflation indicators – showed margins were slimming. The prices paid index edged up to 26.5 from 24.5 to mark its first increase since April 2022, while the prices received index fell by 50% to 14.9, the lowest reading since February 2021.

与此同时，调查的两项价格指标，即生产商支付的价格和他们向客户收取的价格——这两项都受到密切关注的通胀指标——显示利润率正在缩水。支付价格指数从 24.5 小幅上升至 26.5，这是自 2022 年 4 月以来的首次增长，而价格指数下降 50% 至 14.9，为 2021 年 2 月以来的最低读数。

Moreover, firms expect smaller price increases for consumers in the next 12 months than they did in November. In a special question, firms said they expect to impose 4.5% price increases for their own products in the year ahead, down from 4.8% when asked the same question in November and also lower than the 7.0% price increases theyd realized over the last year.

此外，公司预计未来 12 个月内消费者的价格涨幅将低于 11 月份。在一个特殊问题中，公司表示，他们预计来年将对自己的产品实施 4.5% 的价格上涨，低于 11 月份被问及相同问题时的 4.8%，也低于他们在去年实现的 7.0% 的价格上涨.

Some Federal Reserve officials have been looking for a reversal in the trend for margins as another signal that the high inflation theyve been battling for the last year may continue to wane. The Fed earlier this month raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to between 4.50% and 4.75% and indicated further increases were warranted as inflation remains too far above its targeted level of 2% annually.

一些美联储官员一直在寻找利润率趋势的逆转，以此作为他们去年一直在与高通胀作斗争的另一个信号可能会继续减弱。美联储本月早些时候将基准利率上调了 25 个百分点至 4.50% 至 4.75% 之间，并表示有必要进一步加息，因为通胀率仍远高于其每年 2% 的目标水平。

For U.S. consumers overall, producers in the survey estimated prices would increase 4.0% over the next 12 months, down from 5.0% in the November survey, and their expectations for longer-run consumer inflation over a 10-year horizon dropped to 3.0% from 4.0%.

对于整体美国消费者而言，调查中的生产者估计未来 12 个月物价将上涨 4.0%，低于 11 月调查时的 5.0%，他们对 10 年长期消费者通胀率的预期从4.0%。

Wage increases were also expected to be lower at 4.8% in the year ahead, down from 5.0% in the November survey.

预计未来一年的工资增幅也将下降至 4.8%，低于 11 月调查时的 5.0%。

(Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

(dan burns 报道；chizu nomiyama 编辑)