US Dollar Outlook Post Inflation Upside Surprise, Setups on EUR/USD & USD/JPY

US DOLLAR FORECAST:

美元预测：

The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY Index, exhibited volatilty after U.S. inflation data crossed the wires, seeking direction as bulls and bears engaged in a hard-fought tug of war. While the greenback took a dive in a knee-jerk reaction, it ultimately managed to erase losses and climbed into positive territory as Treasury yields, especially those at the front end made a run higher (DXY up +0.10% to 103.41 at the time of writing.

以美元指数衡量的美元在美国通胀数据越过电线后表现出波动，在多头和空头进行激烈的拉锯战时寻找方向。尽管美元在下意识的反应中跳水，但随着美国国债收益率，尤其是前端的收益率走高（dxy 上涨 +0.10%，当时上涨 0.10% 至 103.41），它最终设法消除了损失并攀升至正值写作。

WHATS BEHIND MARKET MOVES？

市场走势的背后是什么？

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released this morning its latest inflation report. According to the agency, the consumer price index rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, bringing the annual rate to 6.4% from 6.5%, two-tenths above consensus estimates. For its part, the core gauge, which excludes food and energy expenditures, clocked in at 0.5% m-o-m and 5.6% in the last 12 months, slightly above forecasts.

美国劳工统计局 (bls) 今天上午发布了最新的通胀报告。据该机构称，消费者价格指数经季节性调整后上涨 0.5%，年增长率从 6.5% 升至 6.4%，比普遍预期高出十分之二。就其本身而言，不包括食品和能源支出的核心指标在过去 12 个月的环比增长为 0.5% 和 5.6%，略高于预期。

US INFLATION DATA AT A GLANCE

美国通胀数据一览

While the upside surprise was disappointing and may embolden market hawks to push for more Fed hikes, it is important to note that not everything was negative this mornings report. For instance, shelter, a lagging indicator, accounted for nearly half of the CPI gain, after jumping 0.7% m-o-m. If real-time numbers on housing metrics were included instead, this category would be in disinflation by now, suggesting that current figures may be misleading about price trends.

虽然上行意外令人失望，并可能鼓励市场鹰派推动美联储进一步加息，但重要的是要注意，今天上午的报告并非所有内容都是负面的。例如，在环比上涨 0.7% 之后，滞后指标住房占 cpi 涨幅的近一半。如果改为包括住房指标的实时数据，则该类别现在将处于通货紧缩状态，这表明当前数据可能会误导价格趋势。

FED FUTURES IMPLIED YIELD AND US TREASURY RATES

美联储期货隐含收益率和美国国债利率

Source: TradingView

资料来源：tradingview

Taken together, today's data may be slightly bullish for the U.S. dollar, though probably insufficient to alter the risks around the Fed's policy outlook or lead traders to reprice significantly higher the FOMC terminal rate on a sustained basis. That said, the U.S. currency may retain some support in the coming days but will need additional catalysts to extend its recovery over a longer-term horizon, especially if sentiment stays buoyant.

总而言之，今天的数据可能略微利好美元，但可能不足以改变围绕美联储政策前景的风险或导致交易员持续重新定价 fomc 终端利率大幅上调。也就是说，美元在未来几天可能会保留一些支撑，但需要更多的催化剂来延长其长期复苏，尤其是在市场情绪保持活跃的情况下。

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

欧元/美元技术分析

EUR/USD is still in a consolidation phase, stuck between resistance at ~1.0800 and support at ~1.0650. For the pair to take a decisive directional cue, prices need to break out of this range. That said, if the consolidation resolves to the upside, we could see a move towards 1.0935, followed by a retest of the 2023 high. On the other hand, if technical support at 1.0650 is breached on the downside, the selling momentum could accelerate, paving the way for a fall towards 1.0495.

欧元兑美元仍处于盘整阶段，在 1.0800 左右的阻力位和 1.0650 左右的支撑位之间徘徊。为了让货币对采取决定性的方向暗示，价格需要突破该区间。也就是说，如果盘整解决为上行，我们可能会看到向 1.0935 移动，然后重新测试 2023 年的高点。另一方面，如果下行突破 1.0650 的技术支撑，抛售势头可能加速，为跌向 1.0495 铺平道路。

USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

欧元/美元技术图表美元/日元技术分析

After the recent bounce, USD/JPY is now approaching resistance near 133.10. If bulls manage to drive the exchange rate above this barrier, upside impetus could gather strength, allowing buyers to launch an attack on 134.90, followed by 136.70, the 38.2% retracement of the October 2022-January 2023 decline. Conversely, if sellers return and trigger a bearish pullback, initial support appears at 129.70 and then 128.50, a floor created by a short-term rising trendline in play since February 2022.

在近期反弹后，美元兑日元目前逼近 133.10 附近的阻力位。如果多头成功推动汇价突破这一关口，则上行动力可能会积聚力量，允许多头对 134.90 发起攻击，然后是 2022 年 10 月至 2023 年 1 月跌势的 38.2% 回撤位 136.70。相反，如果空头返回并触发看跌回调，则初步支撑位在 129.70，然后是 128.50，这是自 2022 年 2 月以来的短期上升趋势线所创造的底部。