Column-Markets ride $1 trillion global liquidity wave: McGeever

ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – The explanation for the whoosh higher in risk assets this year may be as simple as it is surprising: eye-popping liquidity from central banks.

佛罗里达州奥兰多（路透社）——今年风险资产飙升的原因可能既简单又令人惊讶：来自央行的流动性令人瞠目结舌。

Largely thanks to the Bank of Japan hoovering up domestic government bonds to keep its ‘yield curve control’ policy intact, and stimulus from the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), aggregate liquidity from the official sector has surged in recent months.

很大程度上要归功于日本央行大量持有国内政府债券以保持其“收益率曲线控制”政策不变，以及中国人民银行 (pboc) 的刺激措施，近几个月来自官方部门的总流动性激增。

Apollo Global Management‘s Torsten Slok reckons the BOJ bought $291 billion of bonds in January – a monthly record which contributed to G4 central banks’ first net injection of liquidity into the global financial system since last April.

apollo global management 的 torsten slok 估计，日本央行在 1 月份购买了 2,910 亿美元的债券——创下月度纪录，促使 g4 央行自去年 4 月以来首次向全球金融体系净注入流动性。

Matt King, global strategist at Citi in London, estimates around $1 trillion has been pumped into the global system in the last few months, a vast sum in its own right but an especially large one given where central banks are in the policy cycle.

伦敦花旗集团全球策略师马特金估计，过去几个月向全球体系注入了约 1 万亿美元，这本身就是一笔巨款，但考虑到中央银行所处的政策周期，这一数字尤其巨大。

Led by the Federal Reserve, they are, broadly speaking, deeply mired in the battle against inflation: raising interest rates, draining liquidity via ‘quantitative tightening’, and talking tough by promising to raise rates further if need be.

在美联储的领导下，从广义上讲，他们深陷与通货膨胀的斗争：提高利率，通过“量化紧缩”消耗流动性，并通过承诺在必要时进一步加息来强硬说话。

Yet the aggregate flow has been indisputably positive for world markets. Risky assets like equities have had a great start to the year despite the spike in short yields and implied rates, financial conditions have eased, and volatility has stayed low.

然而，总流量无疑对世界市场有利。尽管短期收益率和隐含利率飙升，但金融状况有所缓和，波动性保持在低位，股票等风险资产今年开局良好。

What happens for the rest of the year may depend on the path the BOJ pursues under new Governor Kazuo Ueda, who succeeds Haruhiko Kuroda – the architect of a decade of super-loose policy – in early April.

今年余下时间的情况可能取决于日本央行在新任行长上田一夫的领导下所走的道路，上田一夫将于 4 月初接替黑田东彦——十年超级宽松政策的设计师——。

“We have this very unique situation where central banks around the world are trying to cool inflation, but the BOJ is holding onto YCC,'” says Slok, chief economist and partner at Apollo.

apollo 首席经济学家兼合伙人 slok 表示：“我们面临着这种非常独特的情况，世界各地的中央银行都在努力为通胀降温，但日本央行却坚持 ycc。”

“Japanese investors are suddenly sitting with a lot of cash in their hands. If this continues, liquidity from Japan will continue to support global markets,” he adds.

“日本投资者手中突然坐拥大量现金。如果这种情况持续下去，来自日本的流动性将继续支持全球市场，”他补充道。

The BOJ‘s $291 billion purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in January was the central bank’s fourth monthly net purchase in a row. Since October, the BOJ has bought more than $475 billion of JGBs.

日本央行 1 月份购买了 2910 亿美元的日本政府债券 (jgb)，这是该央行连续第四个月进行净购买。自 10 月以来，日本央行购买了超过 4750 亿美元的日本国债。

The BOJ flow in January outstripped the combined liquidity drain from the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, resulting in a G4 net liquidity provision of $115.3 billion.

日本央行 1 月份的流动性超过了美联储、欧洲中央银行和英格兰银行的流动性总和，导致 g4 的净流动性供应达到 1153 亿美元。

$1 TRILLION LIQUIDITY POOL

1 万亿美元的流动资金池

Pressure had been mounting on the BOJ for months to tweak its YCC policy of buying unlimited amounts of bonds to cap the 10-year yield at 0.25%. But it was still a shock when the BOJ announced on Dec. 20 that it would raise the cap to 0.50%.

日本央行几个月来一直承受着越来越大的压力，要求日本央行调整其无限量购买债券的 ycc 政策，将 10 年期国债收益率限制在 0.25%。但当日本央行在 12 月 20 日宣布将上限提高至 0.50% 时，仍然令人震惊。

Januarys flow data suggests the BOJ has been forced to buy even more bonds to defend the new upper limit.

1 月份的流量数据表明日本央行被迫购买更多债券以捍卫新的上限。

Citis King says the BOJ has not been acting alone. Operations from the ECB and, most notably, the PBOC, have helped pour more than $1 trillion of liquidity into the global financial system in recent months.

citis king 表示，日本央行并非单独行动。近几个月来，欧洲央行，尤其是中国人民银行的行动，帮助向全球金融体系注入了超过 1 万亿美元的流动性。

King estimates that a $1 trillion swing in central bank liquidity is enough to push global equities up or down around 10%, add or subtract 50 basis points to investment grade credit and 200 basis points to high-yield spreads.

king 估计，央行流动性 1 万亿美元的波动足以推动全球股市上涨或下跌 10% 左右，投资级信贷增加或减少 50 个基点，高收益债券利差增加或减少 200 个基点。

That $1 trillion is broadly made up of: $200 billion from the BOJ; 300 billion euros from the ECB since August drawing down government deposits (akin to the U.S. Treasury General Account at the Fed); and more than $400 billion in December alone from the PBOCs boosting of bank reserves via liquidity operations.

这 1 万亿美元主要包括： 来自日本央行的 2000 亿美元；自 8 月以来欧洲央行提取政府存款 3000 亿欧元（类似于美联储的美国财政部总账户）；仅在 12 月份，中国人民银行就通过流动性操作增加了银行准备金，就超过 4000 亿美元。

Analysts at CrossBorder Capital reckon the PBOCs liquidity injections in December and January totaled $450 billion, a staggering sum that is around three and a half times more than its total injections in the past two years.

crossborder capital 的分析师估计，中国人民银行在 12 月和 1 月的流动性注入总额为 4500 亿美元，这一数字是过去两年总注入量的三倍半左右。

In the United States, the Fed has diluted its ‘quantitative tightening’ liquidity draining program by drawing down its TGA and reverse repo facilities, both actions which effectively add liquidity to the banking system.

在美国，美联储通过缩减 tga 和逆回购便利来稀释其“量化紧缩”流动性消耗计划，这两种行动都有效地增加了银行系统的流动性。

These flows go a long way towards explaining why markets have been so buoyant this year. As Citi‘s King says, when changes in even the least significant line items on central bank balance sheets are measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars, “they should command investors’ respect.”

这些流动在很大程度上解释了为什么今年市场如此活跃。正如花旗的金所说，即使央行资产负债表上最不重要的项目的变化也达到数千亿美元，“它们应该赢得投资者的尊重。”

But how long will this be sustained？

但这会持续多久？

“While further gyrations in global liquidity seem likely to remain a major driver of markets, for now the sort of technical factors which added $1 trillion over the past quarter seem unlikely to repeat themselves,” King wrote on Sunday.

“虽然全球流动性的进一步波动似乎仍可能是市场的主要驱动力，但就目前而言，在过去一个季度增加 1 万亿美元的那种技术因素似乎不太可能重演，”金在周日写道。

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

（这里表达的观点是作者的观点，他是路透社的专栏作家。）

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