Analysis: Buckle up, say traders as Wall Streets wild ride shows no sign of end

div classBodysc17zpet90 cdBBJodivpBy Saqib Iqbal Ahmedp

pNEW YORK Reuters – A massive twoday swing in U.S. stocks highlights a trend that some market participants believe will be a hallmark for months to come:

pThe S&P 500 index dropped 3.6 on Thursday, a day after racing 3.0 higher on the Federal Reserves monetary policy statement. Over the last five sessions, the index has marked two of its biggest oneday drops since the pandemic roiled markets two years ago, leaving the benchmark index down 13 so far in 2022. The Nasdaq plummeted 5. p

pBy one measure – the 10day realized volatility for the S&P 500, or how much the index has moved over a rolling 10day period – U.S. stocks are at their choppiest since the pandemic driven selloff in the first half of 2020.p

ppThe gyrations come as investors are faced with an array of potentially combustible factors, chief among them whether the Federal Reserve will be able to tame surging inflation without driving the economy into recession. p

pWednesdays rally came after Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced a widely expected 50 basis point interest rate increase and said policymakers were not discussing larger hikes. He also expressed confidence that the central bank could steer the economy to a socalled soft landing – a view that investors seemed far more skeptical of a day later, as equities tanked.p

p“There is a lot of uncertainty with what is going on, with inflation, oil, global macroeconomic events,” said Matthew Tym, head of equity derivatives trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. “I think we are in for some volatility going forward, probably for the whole year.”p

pThe sharp selloff sent the Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Streets fear gauge, up 5.78 points to 31.20, far above its longterm median of 17.63. Tym said he believed it was unlikely the index would trade “a whole lot lower” anytime soon.p

pThursdays selloff was extraordinarily broad with every S&P sector down on the day and more than 95 of the index constituents in the red.p

p“It‘s a clear ’get out now and ask questions later kind of thing,” said Chris Murphy, cohead of derivative strategy at Susquehanna International Group.p

p“Today‘s move is telling you, the Fed can’t talk its way out of this, you are going to have to take some pain to fix this situation,” Murphy said.p

pThe stock selloff came as benchmark 10year bond yields surged back above 3. Higher yields can dull the allure of stocks, particularly those in highgrowth sectors such as technology, whose companies cash flows are more weighted in the future and diminished when discounted at higher interest rates.p

p“The bond market had started to factor in inflation and central bank policy earlier and maybe more effectively than the equity market,” said Brooks Ritchey, cochief investment officer at K2 Advisors, pointing to macro hedge funds as those playing this theme. “So we may need a bit more time or even a bit more pressure for the equity market to be positioned for the new interest rate cycle.” p

pAndrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities, viewed Thursdays sellers as funds that follow macro trends.p

p“Its pretty awful in the equity markets,” said Brenner, saying that the selling was a response to Powells remarks, as investors viewed him even more “behind the curve” in raising rates. p

pThe Fed is hardly the only worry facing markets. Prices for oil and many other commodities remain sky high, partially as a result of repercussions from the war in Ukraine. Markets remain focused on inflation, with key U.S. consumer price data coming next week.p

p“Volatility has taken the wheel, so investors should buckle up while the market adjusts to new conditions,” said Jeff Klingelhofer, cohead of investments at Thornburg Investment Management, in a note.

div classbodysc17zpet90 cdbbjodivp来自 saqib iqbal ahmedp p纽约路透社——美国股市两天的大幅波动凸显了一种趋势，一些市场参与者认为这将成为未来几个月的标志：剧烈波动。pdivdivdiv classbodysc17zpet90 cdbbjodiv p标准普尔 500 指数周四下跌 3.6，此前一天，美联储货币政策声明上涨 3.0。在过去五个交易日中，该指数创下了自两年前大流行席卷市场以来最大单日跌幅的两个记录，使基准指数在 2022 年迄今下跌 13 点。纳斯达克指数暴跌 5 点。 p通过一项衡量标准——标准普尔 500 指数 10 天的实际波动率，或该指数在 10 天滚动期间的波动幅度——美国股市处于自 2020 年上半年大流行引发的抛售以来的最大波幅。 p p ppgraphic：波涛汹涌的时代 https:graphics.reuters.comusastockszgvomleazvdchart.png p p pp投资者面临一系列潜在的可燃因素，其中主要是美联储能否在不使经济陷入衰退的情况下控制通胀飙升。 p p周三的反弹是在美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔宣布普遍预期的加息50个基点并表示政策制定者没有讨论更大幅度的加息之后出现的。他还表达了对央行能够引导经济实现所谓软着陆的信心——这一观点认为，随着股市暴跌，投资者似乎对一天后的持怀疑态度。 p“目前的情况存在很多不确定性，包括通胀、石油、全球宏观经济事件，”cantor fitzgerald 股票衍生品交易主管 matthew tym 表示。 “我认为我们未来可能会出现一些波动，可能会持续一整年。”p p大幅抛售使被称为华尔街恐惧指标的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数上涨 5.78 点至 31.20，远高于其长期中值 17.63。 tym 表示，他认为该指数不太可能在短期内“大幅下跌”。p p周四的抛售异常广泛，当日每个标准普尔板块都下跌，超过 95 个指数成分股下跌。 p“很明显，‘现在出去，以后再问问题’之类的事情，”susquehanna international group.p 衍生品策略联席主管 chris murphy 说。 p“今天的举动告诉你，美联储无法通过谈判解决这个问题，你将不得不付出一些痛苦来解决这种情况，”墨菲说。 p股票抛售之际，基准 10 年期债券收益率回升至 3 以上。较高的收益率可能会削弱股票的吸引力，尤其是科技等高增长行业的股票，其公司的现金流在未来的权重更大，并且在以更高的利率折现时会减少费率.p p“债券市场比股市更早地开始考虑通胀和央行政策，而且可能比股市更有效，”k2 advisors 首席投资官 brooks ritchey 表示，他指出宏观对冲基金是参与这一主题的基金。 “因此，我们可能需要更多时间，甚至更多压力，才能让股市为新的利率周期做好准备。” p p国家联盟证券国际固定收益主管安德鲁·布伦纳（andrew brenner）将周四的卖家视为跟随宏观趋势的基金。 p“股市的情况非常糟糕，”布伦纳表示，抛售是对鲍威尔言论的回应，因为投资者认为他在加息方面更加“落后”。 p p美联储并不是市场面临的唯一担忧。石油和许多其他商品的价格仍然居高不下，部分原因是乌克兰战争的影响。市场仍关注通胀，下周将公布关键的美国消费者价格数据。 p“波动性已经起到了推动作用，因此投资者应该在市场适应新情况的同时做好准备，”thornburg investment management 投资联席主管 jeff klingelhofer 在一份报告中表示。