AUD/USD May Rise as New South Wales Reopens, Energy Prices Remain in Focus

• Australian Dollar off to a cautious start after AUD/USD rose over 0.50% last week

• Prevailing risk trends may drive prices action with little on the economic docket

• AUD/USD looks to hold above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) Monday

MONDAY‘S ASIA-PACIFIC FORECAST

Asia-Pacific markets appear set for an open higher Monday as the trading week kicks off. Today doesn’t offer much in the way of event risks, with a rather sparse economic calendar. That leaves markets susceptible to prevailing risk trends from last week when a deal on the US debt ceiling spurred some risk-taking across markets. The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar is tracking cautiously higher versus the US Dollar. AUD/USD rose over half a percent last week.

Given the lack of economic events on today‘s docket, traders will eye upcoming events due out later this week. These include inflation data out of China, New Zealand, and the United States, UK GDP, Australian and American consumer confidence, and US retail sales. Corporate America is also set to begin another quarterly earnings season. Investors will analyze earnings reports for clues of companies’ views on the global economic outlook, and perhaps most critically, inflation.

New South Wales (NSW), Australias most populated state, will roll back some Covid-19 restrictions today, marking the first step in reopening the state following a one hundred day lockdown. The state achieved an over 70% vaccination rate. Easing travel restrictions will be the next big step, with a possible reopening slated for November.

Elsewhere, energy prices will remain in focus after surging natural gas and coal prices spurred more aggressive outlooks on global inflation. US natural gas prices hit the highest level since 2014 last week. China ordered coal-fired power plants to increase output recently to combat the enormous rise in energy prices, which has caused policymakers to clamp down on manufacturing to preserve power. Chinese energy providers will also be allowed to temporarily boost customer rates, according to Reuters news wires.

AUD/USD TECHNICAL FORECAST

AUD/USD is trading directly above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after rising 0.69% last week. Despite last weeks strength, prices remain nearly 2% lower from the September swing high. Bulls will look to hold prices above the 50-day SMA. Otherwise, dropping below the moving average will threaten trendline support that capped prices over the past couple of weeks.

AUD/USD 8-HOUR CHART

Source: DailyFX