Euro Price Forecast: EUR/USD Plunge Faces First Hurdle at Fresh Yearly Low

• Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart

• EUR/USD plunges nearly 3% off September high into critical support pivot

• Weekly support 1.1569 (key), 1.1445; Resistance 1.1695 bearish invalidation ~1.1830s

Euro is trading fractionally higher against the US Dollar into the start of the week with EUR/USD attempting to snap a four-week losing streak. Price is trading into a critical support pivot weve been tracking for months now and the focus is on possible price inflection off this threshold early in the month. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart heading into October trade.

EURO PRICE CHART – EUR/USD WEEKLY

Notes: In my last Euro Weekly Price Outlook(August) we noted that EUR/USD was approaching resistance objectives at, “the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May decline at 1.1894- a region of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. A close below 1.1695 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend with such a scenario exposing critical support at the 2019 & 2016 highs / the 100% extension of the yearly decline at 1.1570-1.1621.” Price briefly registered a high at 1.1909 before reversing sharply lower with Euro now trading within this key support pivot into the October open- watch the weekly close.

A break below this threshold could fuel another bout of accelerated losses for the Euro with such a scenario exposing the lower parallel / 2019 yearly open at ~1.1445- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Initial weekly resistance now back at 1.1695 with breach / close above the median-line (currently ~1.1830s) needed to suggest a more significant near-term low is in place.

Bottom line: Euro has plummeted into support at a critical multi-year pivot zone into the start of the month. From a trading standpoint a good zone to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. Risk for some recovery here but rallies should be capped by 1.1694 IF price is heading lower on this stretch. Ultimately, a larger breakdown may offer more favorable opportunities closer to downtrend support. Ill publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Source: DailyFX