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Abstract:Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD has a good chance to regain the $1900 level – TDS
As gold plunged back into the $1,770s/oz range in the days immediately after the June FOMC economic projections were released, the market delivered a sobering reminder to investors and analysts that the path to new highs is almost never a smooth one. Despite the recent selloff, economists at TD Securities judge that the Feds continued emphasis on its full employment mandate should see the yellow metal recover most of its recent losses.
Gold can shine when nominal rates do not outpace inflation expectations“Despite the fact that the FOMC dot plot shifted hike expectations forward to late-2023 (median showing a 50bp of tightening), with many traders expecting a much earlier tightening, and that Chair Powell has started the process of preparing markets for QE tapering, we believe that the yellow metal is still in a position which makes a return to a $1,900/oz range possible into 2022.”
“So far treasury markets don‘t seem to be worried about out of control price increases. Even if there is a period of above expectation prices, we suspect that Mr. Powell and friends would intervene in the Treasury market should yields rise to the point that they would erode financial conditions and threaten the Fed’s ability to deliver on its full employment mandate. This all likely means real rates remain at the lows, along the longer end of the curve too, which is gold accretive.”
“The yellow metal has a good chance to again move into $1,900/oz territory for part of 2022-23. In addition to all the macro and monetary policy ducks having to be lined up in a row, there will need to be an improvement to physical demand in China and India for our optimistic view to play out.”
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
The trend of gold on the daily chart is in line with technical requirements.
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