AUD/USD Forecast: Fresh lows, pressure mounts

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.7463

• Lockdowns in Australia continue to weigh on the Aussie.

• US dollars positive outlook versus G10 currencies firm and solid.

• AUD/USD breaks under June lows, weakening further.

The AUD/USD did not escape the broad-based strength of the US dollar. The chart show similarities with other majors: price under June lows after a limited recovery and the bearish bias intact. The dollar was again the best performer even as US economic data came in without surprises. Market participants appear to be positioning for a good NFP report and also toward some tapering from the Federal Reserve sooner than previously expected.

The Final PMI reading in Australia showed an upward revision to 58.6 from 58.4. Despite the numbers, the focus is on the impact of lockdowns in Australia. Next week, the Reserve Bank of Australia will meet, and a cautious tone is seen considering current uncertainties. The Aussie remains among the weakest in the G10 group: AUD/NZD fell to the lowest in almost a month, breaking key technical levels.

On Thursday, Chinese data came in below expectations, and analysts consider it was affected by supply disruptions and weaker external demand. Housing data will be released on Friday in Australia. A calm Asian session could is expected, as it usually happens prior to the US employment report. Also in the US, the Factory Orders report is due.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD is moving a clear bearish bias, reinforced with the ongoing consolidation below the June low (0.7475), suggesting the negative tone is set to continue. The RSI in the 4-hour chart at oversold territory favoring some stabilization ahead. The next support stands at 0.7440, and below attention would turn to 0.7400. The daily RSI is also at 30 but still pointing south, suggesting the negative tone is intact for the moment. A recovery above 0.7515 would improve the outlook for the Aussie.

Support levels: 0.7445 0.7390 0.7335

Resistance levels: 0.7475 0.7505 0.7530

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