British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD to Break Higher if 1.42 Breached

• This months rally in GBP/USD will likely persist if and when it breaks resistance at and just above the 1.42 level.

• Market pricing suggests the Bank of England will increase its key interest rate by June next year and that is helping to boost the British Pound.

• Moreover, the latest UK public borrowing figures suggest borrowing is beginning to fall back after its previous surge higher.

GBP/USD looks set to continue this month‘s advance, but only if it can hurdle psychological resistance at the 1.42 level on a sustained basis. As the chart below shows, it broke above 1.42 briefly on Tuesday last week and then again on Friday, with Friday’s high at 1.4234 the next resistance level above the round number to watch out for.

Behind Sterlings advance lies speculation that the Bank of England will be sufficiently worried about inflation to increase Bank Rate by a quarter of a percentage point in the middle of next year. Market pricing suggests a quarter-point rise by June 2022 and a further increase in June the year after.

That‘s despite BoE Governor Andrew Bailey telling lawmakers Monday that an expected acceleration in prices this year will likely be temporary. Jon Cunliffe, one of his deputies, said inflation will later return to the central bank’s 2% target as growth slows.

In the meantime, the latest data on UK public-sector borrowing, released earlier this session, showed net borrowing in April down to £31.7 billion after a revised fall of £26.3 billion the month before. It is now clear that borrowing is falling after its huge rise since the start of the coronavirus pandemic as the Government increased spending to dampen the negative economic impact of Covid-19.

As for this session, the BoEs Silvana Tenreyro is scheduled to speak at 1700 local time but that is unlikely to move the markets as she will almost certainly stick to the script prepared by Bailey and Cunliffe.

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