Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Some Cold Expected, but Warm Temps Expected to Dominate US

Natural gas futures are trading nearly flat shortly after the opening on Tuesday after giving back earlier gains. Prices rose early in the session on a small uptick in heating demand due to a modest shift in the forecast, but the news wasnt bullish enough to sustain the move.

At 15:06 GMT, December natural gas futures are trading $2.868, up $0.009 or +0.31%.

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NatGasWeather Adds Some Heating Degree Days

Models added some heating degree days (HDD) over the previous 24 hours on colder trending systems expected to move across the Northeast late this week and early next week, NatGasWeather said in its updated forecast early Tuesday.

However, outside of these colder trends the upcoming pattern “remains solidly bearish, especially for the period starting next Tuesday and extending through November 24, when ”warm high pressure dominates much of the U.S., NatGasWeather said.

The forecast will continue to look bearish absent more cold reaching the eastern half of the country, NatGasWeather said. The “next best opportunity” for this to happen wont arrive “until near or after November 22-23.”

[fx-article-ad]Maxar Temperature Outlook Shows Warm Pattern

Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) said the latest temperature outlook from Maxars Weather Desk early Tuesday showed a warm pattern for the Lower 48 between Sunday and November 19, with some variability in the East.

“The forecast trends warmer in the West but colder in the Midwest, South and East,” Maxar said. “The cold changes in the Eastern Half are related to high pressure; and while still colder risks to below normal levels are based on a few models, the highs Pacific origin is a limiting factor for more significant cooling.”

Further out in the November 20-24 time frame, Maxar said its updated forecast showed “similar themes” compared to previous expectations, including above normal temperatures across the Midcontinent and near normal readings in the East.

Daily Forecast

The main trend is down according to the technical trend indicator. A trade through $2.821 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The daily chart indicates the market is still in “freefall” territory with the next potential targets coming in at $2.657 and $2.637.

On the upside, the first resistance is $2.929. This is followed by another resistance level at $3.014.

Holding inside the $2.929 to $3.014 range will indicate the market is going through a transition period, which could mean a short-covering rally is imminent.

A lower-low, higher-close will also indicate that the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels.

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