EUR/USD & GOLD Analysis! How To Trade The NFP?|KOL Analysis•Olimpiu Tuns

EUR/USD upside remains intact ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls. Yesterday‘s rejection from around 1.18 psychological level keeps the rate within the buyer’s territory. Today could be decisive for the greenback, better than expected US figures could support the reversal, while poor data could announce USDs further decline.

The price has changed little during the days as the traders await the United States figures to clarify the direction. The high volatility around these releases could bring great trading opportunities.

Non-Farm Employment Change, known as NFP, is expected around 1375K in August, versus 1763K jobs in July. Fundamentally speaking, when the NFP comes above expectations, USD increases, and when the indicator reports a lower figure, the dollar tends to drop.

Therefore, EUR/USD could increase if the NFP will be reported far below 1375K estimates. On the other hand, if the US creates more jobs than expected, the pair could drop as the USDX would be expected to jump higher.

Still, its premature to make scenarios, the US Unemployment Rate is expected to drop from 10.2% to 9.8%, while the Average Hourly Earnings may increase only by 0.0%. These releases could have a high impact as well, so if you are an unexperienced traded, maybe you should stay away until the market calms down.

● USDX Falling Wedge？

US Dollar Index bounced back from the first sliding line (SL1) of the descending pitchfork and now is traded above 92.55 and above the upside 50% Fibonacci line. As you can notice, the index has printed a minor down channel, actually, we can consider this to be a Falling Wedge pattern.

Jumping and closing above 93.06 yesterdays high and beyond the minor downtrend line could mean that the reversal pattern is confirmed. Another higher high and stabilization above the minor downtrend line could suggest a potential growth to the upper median line (UML) of the descending pitchfork.

The pressure is still high as long as the rate stays on the 50% Fibonacci line. A strong bearish candle today could invalidate the bullish scenario. USDXs drop pushes EUR/USD higher.

● EUR/USD Stays Within The Up Channel!

EUR/USD plunged from 1.2012 high returning to 1.18 psychological level yesterday. The price is traded at 1.1842 level at the time of writing, the bullish bias remains intact as long it stays above the channels support and upwards of 1.18 static support.

Tuesday‘s pin bar, shooting star, was confirmed by Wednesday’s bearish candle. RSI shows a bearish divergence, so the overbought is evident on the Daily chart. Though, a selling opportunity could be validated by a drop below 1.17 level. Another lower low will really confirm a corrective phase, 1.1494 is seen as a first downside target.

EUR/USD could challenge the 1.18 and the minor uptrend line in the coming hours, another rejection, false breakdown with great separation will suggest buying. Also, a valid breakout above the second warning line (WL2) will announce further growth.

A sharp rally will arise when the bearish divergence will be invalidated, for instance, if EURUSD jumps and closes above 1.2 psychological level.

● GOLD The Silence Before The Storm!

XAU/USD moves in a range between $2,000 and $1,900 levels. Its traded at $1,935 level, right below the 150% Fibonacci line. The uptrend is intact as long as gold is traded above $1,900 psychological level and above the upper median line (UML).

The US high impact data will bring sharp movement on gold today. A valid breakdown below $1,900 and below UML suggests selling. This scenario could take shape if the economic figures will come in better than expected.

XAU/USD narrow range cannot continue forever, disappointed traders by poor US data will push the rate back above $2,000 level. The breakout of this static resistance represents a great chance to go long again. The rate will be expected to reach at least the 250% Fibonacci line.

{About the Author}

Olimpiu Tuns is a seasoned market analyst / trader / trainer on the financial markets with expertise in forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, futures, options, index, CFD for more than 8 years. He is also a famous blogger in both technical and fundamental analysis, trading signals, trade setups, etc.

He has worked as a Market Analyst / Consultant for three major Brokerage companies, Admiral Markets, MultiBank Exchange Group and InstaForex (live webinars, market analysis, educational materials, video analysis, video tutorials, ghostwriting, content creator), as a Social Media Manager and as a Financial Markets & Crypto Analyst / Contributor for very important news portals/blogs (investing.com, benzinga.com, forexalchemy.com actionforex.com, countingpips.com), websites, educational platforms (Forex.Academy, Forex.Today), independent clients, etc.

Olimpiu Tuns currently works as a Financial Markets & Crypto Analyst / Signal Provider / Trader / Trainer.

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