EUR/USD Upside Still Uncertain!|KOL Analysis•Olimpiu Tuns

EUR/USD is trading in the green today and is struggling to extends its rebound as the USDX stays deep in the sellers territory. The dollar continues to drop despite some good US figures, still, EUR/USD needs to make another higher high to confirm a broader increase.

The pair moves in range in the short term as the USDX is trapped within a minor sideways movement as well, you can use this strong negative correlation between the US Dollar Index and the EUR/USD in trading.

You should be careful today because the United States is to release high impact data that could change the sentiment again. The US Retail Sales is expected to increase by 2.0% in July, less versus 7.5% in June, while the Core Retail Sales could register a 1.3% growth in the previous month.

Industrial Production may increase by 3.1% in July, the Capacity Utilization Rate could jump from 68.6% to 70.3%, furthermore, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment could drop from 72.5 to 72.0, while the Business Inventories may drop by 1.1%.

I really believe that better than expected figures will force the greenback to increase in the short term, while poor data will weaken the USD.

● EUR/USD Accumulation or Distribution？

EUR/USD has managed to jump above 1.18 level and above the 250% Fibonacci line, but the breakout is still unconfirmed. Some good US data could force the rate to develop a bearish engulfing which could invalidate the current breakout above the near-term resistance levels.

Personally, I believe that only another higher high, jump above 1.1917 will really validate further upside movement. As you can see on the Daily chart, EUR/USD has registered two false breakouts above the 1.18 and above the 250% line, another one will send the pair below the 1.17 and will suggest selling.

EUR/USD moves in a range between 1.17 and the 1.1909 levels, a breakout from this pattern in any direction will bring a great trading opportunity. I dont believe that the USD will remain impassive if the US data will offer positive signs later today.

An upside breakout from this range, above 1.1917, will suggest buying with a potential target far above 1.2000 psychological level, while a downside breakout, below 1.17 will suggest selling with a potential target at 1.1495 level.

● GOLD Trading In The Red!

XAUUSD has decreased a little today, a USDs rally could send the rate towards the $1,900 level again. Though, the false breakdown below the $1,900 has signaled that the correction could be ended soon. Technically, the gold price could still come back to test and retest the 150% Fibonacci line and the $1,900 level before going higher.

I believe that only a valid breakdown below the $1,900 will suggest a further decline, corrective phase. The traders could be somehow undecided as long as the yellow metal will be traded between the $1,900 and $2,000 levels. A temporary consolidation above $1,900 could suggest buying again, also a breakout and stabilization above the $2,000 psychological level will signal strong buyers and a potential growth towards fresh historical highs.

Another lower low, drop below $1,864 and below the upper median line (UML) will announce a larger drop. Gold could register a larger drop also if it will be rejected by the first warning line (WL1) and by the $2,000 level.

{About the Author}

Olimpiu Tuns is a seasoned market analyst / trader / trainer on the financial markets with expertise in forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, futures, options, index, CFD for more than 8 years. He is also a famous blogger in both technical and fundamental analysis, trading signals, trade setups, etc.

He has worked as a Market Analyst / Consultant for three major Brokerage companies, Admiral Markets, MultiBank Exchange Group and InstaForex (live webinars, market analysis, educational materials, video analysis, video tutorials, ghostwriting, content creator), as a Social Media Manager and as a Financial Markets & Crypto Analyst / Contributor for very important news portals/blogs (investing.com, benzinga.com, forexalchemy.com actionforex.com, countingpips.com), websites, educational platforms (Forex.Academy, Forex.Today), independent clients, etc.

Olimpiu Tuns currently works as a Financial Markets & Crypto Analyst / Signal Provider / Trader / Trainer.

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