Trump Claims a Lead in Global Rebound With Cherry-Picked Data

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President Trump listens during a press conference in the White House on Aug. 13.

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Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

President Donald Trump says America is leading the global economic and financial market recovery. Others contest that claim, while the data -- as usual -- depend on how you parse them.

“Our economy is performing significantly better than Europe -- which people have to understand very strongly,” Trump said at a press briefing Wednesday. “Were working with Europe on their difficulties, and we are going to help them all the way.”

Trump‘s comments came just hours after two senior Federal Reserve officials lamented that the U.S.’s failure to contain the coronavirus put the nation at risk of a prolonged economic downturn. They contrasted the situation to Europe, where they said a more forceful response to the pandemic has positioned countries for a quicker comeback.

Data show Europes stronger lockdowns likely contributed to its bigger GDP decline earlier, but may be helping it more recently. Indicators such as credit-card use, travel and location information show euro-area economies such as Germany, France, and Italy, along with Norway and Japan, are closest to their pre-pandemic readings, while Spain is falling behind slightly, according to Bloomberg Economics. The U.K., U.S. and Canada are still far below their levels of activity at the start of the year.

{18} “欧元Ë更难去了，现在弹跳强，说：”布鲁斯·卡斯曼首席经济学家，摩根大通公司全球经济研究部主管‘最终，我们认为欧洲不会因为其处理该病毒的更好。’ {18 } 波士顿美联储总统埃里克罗森格伦是那些已经拿起这种趋势中。 “探访欧洲零售和休闲场所，现在已经经历了更强劲的复苏与美国访问这样的位置比较，并接近其大流行前的水平，”他说，星期三。

股市表现

达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰还举报过其他国家拉低其感染率后“正在以非常快的速度恢复。”

{} 777 在被问及这些意见，特朗普指责民主党州长未能打开他们的状态在引起“逆风”，为经济。 “他们只是想让这些人在他们的房子，他们的监狱，”他说。 {777} 特朗普还宣称美洲股市表现。

{25 } “美国正引领世界非常显着”，当谈到近几个月股市的反弹，他说，自三月份以来美国的股票市值已经万亿$ 9上升，“一些，没有人是永远听说过的”。 {25} 实际上，其高达超过12万亿从三月底部$，根据彭博汇编的数据。但是，标准普尔500指数已经在过去两个月了一些措施落后，由于冠状病毒的传播在美国的11％的涨幅是在上海综合的14％的涨幅落后加快，并与欧洲斯托克600线美元计算

“的股市反弹信号V形恢复，”王牌说。

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And most economists say that while U.S. spending and jobs rose sharply in May and early June, activity has since flattened out, suggesting a longer slog of a recovery.

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“Europe went down harder and is now bouncing stronger,” said Bruce Kasman chief economist and head of global economic research at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “Ultimately we think Europe does better because of its handling of the virus.”

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Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren is among those that have picked up on that trend. “Visits by Europeans to retail and recreation locations have now experienced a more robust recovery compared with American visits to such locations and are close to their pre-pandemic levels,” he said Wednesday.

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Stock Market Performance

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Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan also flagged that other countries “are recovering at a very rapid rate” after pulling down their infection rates.

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Asked about those comments, Trump blamed Democratic governors for failing to open up their states as causing a “headwind” for the economy. “They just want to keep these people in their houses, in their prisons,” he said.

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Trump also touted Americas stock market performance.

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“The United States is leading the world very substantially” when it comes to the rebound in equities in recent months, He said since March America‘s stock-market capitalization has risen by $9 trillion, “a number that nobody’s ever heard of before.”

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Actually, its up more than $12 trillion from the bottom in March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. But the S&P 500 Index has underperformed by some measures over the past two months, since the spread of the coronavirus accelerated in the U.S. Its 11% gain is behind the 14% rise in the Shanghai Composite, and in line with the Euro Stoxx 600 in dollar terms.

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“The stock markets rebound signals a V-shaped recovery,” Trump said.

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The president made his case with charts, trumpeting “the shallowest contraction, which is a big deal” in the economy.

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That depends on how it‘s measured, however. U.S. gross domestic product shrank 9.5% in the second quarter from a year before, against a 15% slide in the euro region. But some of that outperformance owes to stronger growth in the second half of 2019, rather than superior handling of Covid-19. The U.S. slide on an annualized basis was 32.9%, the worst reading in a data series going back to the 1940s. Meantime, China’s GDP rose last quarter.

GLOBAL INSIGHT: Alt-Data Show Growth Plateauing, Far From Normal

Trump also highlighted a rebound in homebuilding, auto sales and manufacturing, along with employment.

Indeed, most measures of housing have shown “v shaped recoveries,” Michael Feroli, a colleague of Kasmans at JPMorgan, wrote recently. But credit-card spending data have been softening, likely due to the resurgence in Covid-19, he also said.

The expiry of supplementary unemployment benefits in July also threatens to undermine a rebound in spending. While Trump has signed executive orders offering some relief, economists say its no replacement for another broad fiscal package of at least $1 trillion -- over which Republicans and Democrats are deadlocked.

“If this is all we get for fiscal policy for the rest of the year it would represent a significant downside risk to our growth outlook,” Feroli said.