Focus this Week: Lowe, Canadian, Australian, UK & PMI Retail Sales| KOL Analysis•Fanny Arianti Arief

The dollar weakened for the fourth week in a row due to weak economic data, and the decline in demand due to soaring cases of the corona virus has cast doubt on the ability of the US economy to recover quickly from other countries. Data on Friday showed University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell 73.2 in July, below forecasts for a 79.0 decline. In addition to economic data, the increasing corona virus infection in the US is also the main trigger for the weakening dollar. The US reported 77,200 cases on Thursday, the highest daily increase, with the number of deaths above 138,000, according to Johns Hopkins University. While the US is battling the virus, investors are beginning to question the strength of economic recovery in the country with the largest economy. The dollar index closed at 96.01 last Friday, weakening 0.65% for the week.

The euro strengthened last week amid hopes that European Union (EU) countries are expected to vote for a 750 billion euro ($ 856 billion) recovery fund to support the bloc's economy. Meanwhile, at its meeting last week, the ECB maintained its policy. ECB Chair Christine Lagarde said she would use the stimulus even as the eurozone economy began to rebound.

Gold prices continue to rise weekly. Last week, the price of US gold futures rose 0.1%, while spot gold prices rose 0.6%. The price of gold has gone up about 8% in six consecutive weeks. Mega stimulus released by almost all countries in order to protect the economy from the destruction of the Covid-19 pandemic, has driven demand for safe haven gold, soaring 19.3% this year. In the US, the House of Representatives is discussing the corona virus assistance program, as well as in the European Union.

Bullish data from the EIA and OPEC +'s determination to curb non-compliance with output cuts have supported oil prices, but worries about a second wave of the virus spreading caused oil prices to move flat last week. Last week, OPEC + agreed to relax output cuts from 9.7 million bpd to 7.7 bpd. OPEC + action is still accepted by the market because the policy includes compensation from countries that do not comply with previous agreements. So in fact the effective production reduction only dropped to 8.1 to 8.3 million bpd, not 7.7 million bpd. Meanwhile, bullish data from the EIA, which reported a decline in oil reserves by 7.5 million, also supported sentiment. At the end of the week, however, worries about slowing oil demand weighed on sentiment, sending prices trapped at around $ 40.

Index futures moved higher ahead of today's trading as investors focused on earnings results in the future, prospects for stimulus, and congressional testimony from vaccine developer Covid-19. Last week, the US stock market fluctuated, although the S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose for three consecutive weeks. While the Nasdaq index was corrected after strengthening in previous sessions.

Focus this Week: Lowe, Canadian, Australian, UK & PMI Retail Sales

This week, market participants will be busy again with some important economic data, and events. At the beginning of the week, investors will respond to the results of the meeting of the European Union countries. Then, continued with RBA minutes and speech by RBA chairman Phillip Lowe. While economic data that is worthy of attention include; Canadian, Australian and British retail sales, and PMI manufacturing and services from developed countries.

[About The Author]

Fanny has started her self-learning of Forex since 2005 and has joined an Indonesian broker as a financial consultant in 2009. Through “trial and error”, she has learnt a lot from failure experiences. She is now a renowned trainers for the forex beginners and has helped the clients to get the profits from trade.

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