The NFP Is Crucial For USD!!| KOL Analysis•Olimpiu Tuns

EUR/USD is traded at 1.1270 and is signaling strong buyers in the short term again. Technically, the minor retreat it seems finished after another false breakdown below the 1.1200 psychological level.

Unfortunately, the worse than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data and the Euro-zone mixed figures have sent EUR/USD higher. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was reported at 2369K in June, less versus the 2850K estimate. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI has increased from 43.1 points to 52.6 points, beating the 49.5 estimates, while the ISM Manufacturing Prices indicator has increased from 40.8 to 51.3 points, signaling expansion, but the better than expected data has failed to save the USD from the downside.

It remains to see how the US Dollar will react after the US will publish the NFP, Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, and the Average Hourly Earnings indicators. The Non-Farm Payrolls indicator is expected to increase from 2509K to 3037K in June, the Unemployment Rate could drop to 12.4%, from 13.3% in May, while the Average Hourly Earnings is expected to remain in the negative territory, it could drop by 0.8%.

The USD is bearish right now, so only better than expected figures from the US will save it from the downside and will push it higher versus its rivals. The economic calendar is filled with high impact data, so maybe you should stay away from trading during these releases.

The dollar drops as the USDX is trading in the red, the index flirts with the 97.00 psychological level and with the minor uptrend line, channels support. The USDX has found strong resistance right below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, failing to reach the upper median line (UML) of the major descending pitchfork.

The US Dollar Index has slipped below the monthly Pivot Point (97.13) level, a valid breakdown from the minor up channel will validate a further drop, and the EUR/USD growth. Only a bullish momentum and a potential breakout above the upper median line (UML) will announce the USDs dominance and EUR/USD larger drop.

EUR/USD rallies again after the last false breakdown with great separation below the 1.1200 psychological level. The price is almost to reach the upper median line (UML) again, a valid breakout will validate a further increase at least till the 1.1495 former high.

The pair has passed above the monthly PP (1.1252) level signaling strong buyers, but you should remember that the upper median line (UML) represents strong dynamic resistance. Another rejection or a false breakout with a huge separation above this line will suggest selling again.

Still, a significant downside movement will be validated only if EUR/USD will register a valid breakdown below the 1.1200 static support. Also, a bearish engulfing on the upper median line (UML) will signal another downside momentum.

The 1.0990 and the median line (ML) are seen as potential downside targets if EUR/USD will come back and stabilize below the 1.12 level. On the other hand, a valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) will suggest buying, the 1.1495 is seen as a first target, a valid breakout above this level will signal a further increase on the medium to the long term.

[About The Author]

Olimpiu Tuns

is a seasoned market analyst / trader / trainer on the financial

markets with expertise in forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, futures,

options, index, CFD for more than 8 years. He is also a famous blogger

in both technical and fundamental analysis, trading signals, trade

setups, etc.

He

has worked as a Market Analyst / Consultant for three major Brokerage

companies, Admiral Markets, MultiBank Exchange Group and InstaForex

(live webinars, market analysis, educational materials, video analysis,

video tutorials, ghostwriting, content creator), as a Social Media

Manager and as a Financial Markets & Crypto Analyst / Contributor

for very important news portals/blogs (investing.com, benzinga.com, forexalchemy.com actionforex.com, countingpips.com), websites, educational platforms (Forex.Academy, Forex.Today), independent clients, etc.

Olimpiu Tuns currently works as a Financial Markets & Crypto Analyst / Signal Provider / Trader / Trainer.

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