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Abstract:
Although there are signs of economic improvement, as discussed at the PMI in several European countries and the US, investors remain overshadowed regarding the number of new corona viruses, especially in the US. The manufacturing PMI and service sector in the UK grew in June, while the US manufacturing PMI rose sharply from 39.8 to 49.6, still below 50, which is an increase in numbers. Meanwhile, the worsening of the world's geopolitical climate with the help of the Covid-19 case still weighs on the market. The number of ASRS reported in Covid-19 was 39,818 on Thursday. This condition prompted investors to return to chasing the dollar as a safe haven. The dollar index closed at 97.46 last Friday, up from a one-week low of 96.42, down 0.2% over the week.
The euro had risen sharply to 1.1347 last week to win Eurozone PMI data that exceeded expectations. However, strengthening the euro eroded after the planned implementation of new trade tariffs from the US to around USD3.1 Billion of products from EU-member countries. The euro was also pressured after the ECB increased its pandemic emergency purchasing program (PEPP) by EUR 600 billion, to 1.35 billion.
The price of gold rose in three consecutive weeks, discussed psychological targets at $ 1,800, as investors entered safe haven amid new developments in the case of coronaviruses globally. Some analysts predict that this precious metal can reach the highest level of 2011 before the end of next week, and may reach the highest level at $ 1,900 in July. US gold futures prices rose 0.8% to 1784.80 per ounce. Over the past week, gold prices rose 1.7%, after rising 0.9% and 3.2% in the previous two weeks. While spot gold rose 1.6%.
A week after the rally, the price of WTI and Brent oil was then corrected last week because it was moved regarding the spread of the second wave of corona virus. The number of viral infections that continues to increase the United States over the weekend, with a total of 44,782 new cases approved on Saturday, two days collected related to new cases has increased above 40,000. Texas, the state with the largest number of oil refineries, recorded higher cases of hospitalization for the virus for 16 consecutive days, with 5,523 patients currently being translated. Hospitalizations have risen rapidly since Memorial Day, compiling there are 1,511 19 patients in the hospital. Meanwhile, the IMF said that oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia would divert recessions which this year were caused by a coronavirus pandemic. During the week WTI dropped 3.2% and Brent Down 3%.
Asian stocks were pressured at the start of trading this week because filtering of the corona virus made investors doubtful about economic recovery, prompting them to return to safe haven, like the dollar. Wall Street plunged last Friday as several US states began to consider reopening the economy. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan weakened 0.2%.
Focus this Week: Chinese PMI, Powell, NFP
A series of data and events will again illustrate this week's market movements. Earlier in the week, investors examined the decision of Governor Andrew Bailey. Then the Chinese PMI data will come later. Some countries will also release GDP data, namely Canada and the UK. The event, the most awaited market is the testimony of Fed chairman Jerome Powell, as well as US employment data, including non-farm payroll.
[About The Author]
Fanny has started her self-learning of Forex since 2005 and has joined an Indonesian broker as a financial consultant in 2009. Through “trial and error”, she has learnt a lot from failure experiences. She is now a renowned trainers for the forex beginners and has helped the clients to get the profits from trade.
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The euro rose sharply against the dollar yesterday failed important events in the euro area this week. The euro will discuss the volatility that will be announced at this week's ECB Thursday and the European Union meeting (EU Summit) on Friday. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates, but the market will look at the decision of ECB President Christine Lagarde, who can provide guidance on policy direction.
The dollar weakened to a two-week low yesterday, indicating a reduced safe interest in the currency, after US technology stocks rallied and commodity prices strengthened, although sentiment remained vulnerable amid increasing numbers of corona virus cases in the world, especially in the US. the Nasdaq index rose 0.8%, after yesterday's decline, increasing sentiment for currencies related to risk assets.
The dollar strengthened against other major world currencies yesterday due to the increased spread of the corona virus and lockdown which has re-run in several countries, reducing risk appetite. The US dollar, which is seen as safe haven benefits when investors move away from risky assets.
The dollar weakened yesterday after data showing US service industry activity rose sharply in June, weakening the dollar's safe haven prestige. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply from a previous contraction of 45.4 in May, to 57.1 in June. This figure far exceeds the expectations of analysts who predicted an increase of 50.0.