「KOL Analysis•Jasper Lo」Sterling Is Still in the ICU

Of course, we continue to pay attention to the second round of EU-UK trade negotiations that began today, but on the eve of the negotiations, the EU s chief negotiator Barnier warned Britain that should it fails to comply with its commitments, there may be a no-deal Brexit. Therefore, the financial market remains extremely worried that failing to reach a relevant agreement by the two parties will result in a Brexit without a trade agreement when the transition period is over at the end of the year. Of course, the pound may rebound if there is a dramatic turnaround, but the outlook is still pessimistic.

Regardless of whether the UK and the EU have reached an agreement in trade negotiations, the new coronavirus has caused the worst economic blow to the UK in 100 years. Therefore, forex traders generally believe that the Bank of England will implement negative interest rates in the future to stimulate the economy.

In order to support the weak economy, the British fiscal deficit and even the overall debt have deteriorated seriously. At present, the overall borrowings of the United Kingdom exceeds US$ 2.5 trillion, the highest annual deficit since World War II. The related deficits and debts have skyrocketed, which only add to the already huge burden of Britain with little reserves. Therefore, it is generally predicted that the British government will increase taxes in the future with few options at hand, which will hit the economy even more.

Affected by the above situations, the implied volatility of the three-month pound sterling is higher than the forex volatility index, while the net short position of the pound has continued to rise, both reflecting the continued pessimism of the forex market towards the pound.

The dollar will fall in the short term due to domestic turmoil, and if the European-British negotiations really see a dramatic turnaround, it's likely that the GBP/USD will rise from the previous 1.2650 and then fall back to the 1.1960 level. Judging from the overall trend, I think there is still a chance for the pair to retest the low of 1.1400 in the second half of the year.

[About The Author]

Since 1987, Jasper Lo has been engaged in the financial industry (forex, futures and gold) for more than 32 years and holds forex R.O., securities and futures broker licenses. Mr Lo is an expert in trading forex, precious metals and commodity futures and an basic and technical analyst.

Over the years, Mr Lo won many individual and team sales champion awards, as well as outstanding employee awards. He was invited, as a guest mentor, to the University of Hong Kong, Guangdong Ocean University and Guangzhou Jinan University. And he was also appointed as the chief training consultant by Hantang Securities and Dongguan Securities in China.

Mr Los experience as guest of honor invited by media including Chinese and English newspapers and columnist:

-Guest of honor invited by TVB New Channels such as Finance Channel, Forex Focus, Global Watch

-Guest of honor invited by Now Finance Channel - Forex Reports

-Guest of honor invited by i-CABLE Finance Info Channel - Forex Opportunities

-Guest of honor invited by ViuTV - Investor Smarter Group

-Columnist of Finance and Forex Market of Ming Pao

-Presenter of Finance and Forex Forecast of Ming Pao

-Presenter of Investment 36 Stratagem and Technical Analysis in 1 Min of Ming Bao Finance

-Appointed lecturer of Ming Pao Investment Seminar and Paid Course

-Author of the best seller Investment 36 Stratagem

-Columnist of Forex Expert, Forex Analyst, Marathon Weekly of ET Net

-Guest of honor of Open Good Morning of ET Net

-Guest of honor of Metro Finance Channel - Market Opening, Instant Market Fighting, Guangdong-Hong Kong Finance, Finances Power, Market Analysis

-Guest of honor of New Era of Investment of RTHK

-Columnist of Capital Commodities of Capital Weekly

-Guest Presenter of Wang Guanyi Online Finance Channel - Fund and Commercial Bond

-Columnist of Wealthub Finance and Investment Smart Platform of Enrich Culture

-Guest presenter of Weekly Investment in the World of Enrich Culture

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