Data Offered Some Optimism for US Employment Outlook

Data released yesterday eased the pessimistic outlook over US economy. ADP employment decreased by 27,000, much less than the expected 150,000, which weakened the pessimistic expectations of non-farm payroll in March.

In addition, data released by ISM showed that although the manufacturing PMI fell below the key level of 50 to 49.1 in March, it was far better than the expected 45.0. On the other hand, the two indicators mentioned above suggest that the market may be overly pessimistic in assessing the impact of the outbreak on the US economy, thus supporting the dollar in the short term.

It is worth noting that the unemployment rate in US has remained at a low level of 4% or less for 23 months straight, the longest period since the 1960s.

Technically, two key resistance points for dollars further rebound are at 100.50 and 101.12 respectively, corresponding to 38.2% and 50% of the descending line from March 20th to March 27th.

USDX daily pivot points: 99.95---100.11

S1: 99.58 R1: 100.63

S2: 98.97 R2: 101.09