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Abstract:Gold prices may continue inching upward but technical cues pointing to ebbing momentum are warning of a possible pullback before the broader rise resumes.
Crude oil, gold price performance chart created using TradingView
GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices may rise as markets tilt risk-off before the weekend
Crude oil prices vulnerable, might move to retest $50/bbl figure
Progress may be limited before FOMC minutes, Jackson Hole
Commodity prices idled Thursday as a lull in pace-setting news flow made room to digest recent volatility. From here, a relatively quiet offering on the economic data docket seems likely to keep broad-based market sentiment trends in control. The path of least resistance favors a risk-off scenario.
Sudden bursts of volatility have become increasingly common recently as prices react to eye-catching headlines from Washington and Beijing amid US-China trade war escalation. This probably has traders more leery than usual of holding pro-risk exposure over the weekend.
With that in mind, a round of defensive liquidation might pull down cycle-sensitive crude oil prices alongside stocks. A parallel dip in bond yields might have scope to push up gold, especially since the metal has managed gains even as the US Dollar trades higher recently.
Absent a burst of headline-driven volatility however, significant trend development seems unlikely. The week ahead brings critical inflection points in the Fed policy outlook – a defining macro input – by way of FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole symposium. Commitment may be scarce in the interim.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices are inching toward resistance at 1540.70, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close above that exposes a weekly chart inflection level at 1563.00 next. Negative RSI divergence hints upside momentum is ebbing however. A turn below the 61.8% Fib at 1513.94 targets the 50% level at 1492.31.
Gold price chart created using TradingView
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices slipped back below the lower bound of the 54.72-56.09 congestion area, breaking the weekly uptrend in the process. Sellers may now move test the 49.41-50.60 zone anew. A daily close above trend resistance set from late April – now at 58.53 – seems necessary to neutralize downward pressure.
Crude oil price chart created using TradingView
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
Gold prices have been highly volatile, trading near record highs due to various economic and geopolitical factors. Last week's weak US employment data, with only 114,000 jobs added and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, has increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing rate cuts, boosting gold's appeal. Tensions in the Middle East further support gold as a safe-haven asset. Technical analysis suggests that gold prices might break above $2,477, potentially reachin
The USD/JPY pair is predicted to increase based on both fundamental and technical analyses. Fundamental factors include a potential easing of aggressive bond buying by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which could lead to yen depreciation. Technical indicators suggest a continuing uptrend, with the possibility of a correction once the price reaches the 157.7 to 160 range.
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