Aussie Price Outlook: Is the Australian Dollar Recovery Real？

• Australian Dollar rebounds from confluence support- Shorts at risk while above 6733

  澳大利亚元从汇合支持中反弹 - 高于6733的风险短裤

The Australian Dollar reversed sharply against the US Dollar yesterday after failing to break confluence support with the subsequent recovery now targeting initial resistance targets. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD charts heading into the close of the week. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this oil price setup and more.

澳元在未能突破汇合支撑后昨日大幅逆转美元随后的恢复现在针对初始阻力目标。这些是澳元/美元图表在本周收盘时的重要目标和失效水平。回顾本周的战略网络研讨会，深入分析这种油价设置等。

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Aussie Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

澳元价格走势图 - 澳元/美元每日

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

图表由技术战略师Michael Boutros编写; Tradingview上的澳元/美元

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Technical Outlook: In my latest AUD/USD Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Aussie had, “reversed from confluence downtrend resistance last week and leaves AUD/USD at risk for steeper losses. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce short exposure / lower protective stops on a move into channel support.” Price probed through confluence support at the lower parallel at 6733/45 yesterday before reversing sharply to close back above.

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The broader short-bias is vulnerable near-term while above this threshold with daily resistance eyed close by at the 38.2% retracement / 2016 low at 6828/32 and the monthly open / 2016 low-week close at 6845/55- ultimately a breach above 6910 would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered yesterday. A break / close below 6733 would b needed to mark resumption with such a scenario once shifting the focus back to the lows at 6677 and beyond.

更广泛的短期偏见在短期内处于弱势，同时高于此阈值，每日阻力位于38.2％的回撤位/ 2016年低点6828/32附近以及月度开盘/ 2016年低位收盘时收于6845 / 55-最终需要突破6910以上，表明昨天已经出现了更为显着的低点。如果出现这种情况，需要在6733以下进行突破/收盘将焦点转移到6677及以后的低点。

Aussie Price Chart – AUD/USD 120min

澳元价格走势图 - 澳元/美元120分钟

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

图表由技术战略师Michael Boutros编写;关于Tradingview的澳元/美元

Notes: A closer look at AUD/USD price action shows Aussie testing confluence support at the lower parallel with a false break giving way to a breach above this tight embedded descending channel formation extending off the July highs. The advance is now testing a breach of the weekly opening-range – a topside break would keep the breakout trade viable targeting 6828/32 backed by 6845/55. A breach above the median-line would be needed to fuel the next leg higher. Interim support & near-term bullish invalidation now back at 6733/45.

注意：仔细观察澳元/美元价格走势显示，澳元测试合并支撑位于较低水平位置，假设突破让位于突破该位置的突破位置嵌入式下行通道形成延续7月高位。目前的进展正在测试是否违反了每周开盘价 - 上行突破将使得突破交易可以在6845/55支撑下以6828/32为目标。需要高于中线的突破才能推动下一轮走高。临时支持和近期看涨失效现在回到6733/45。

Bottom line: Aussie rebounded off big support this week and were looking for a reaction on a stretch higher into resistance for guidance. From at trading standpoint, look for exhaustion on a pullback while above 6745 for possible entries with a breach above 6855 needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway. IF price holds a test of the median-line on push higher, look for support ahead of the weekly open at 6792 for the Aussie advance to remain viable.

底线：本周澳元兑美元大幅回升，并且正在寻求反弹，因为指引出现阻力位。从交易的角度来看，在6745以上的情况下寻找回调疲惫，因为可能的突破需要突破6855，表明正在进行更大的复苏。如果IF价格在上行推动中位线测试，则在6792周开盘前寻求支撑，以使澳元上涨保持可行。

Aussie Trader Sentiment

澳大利亚交易员情绪

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +3.25 (76.5% of traders are long) – bearish reading

  IG Clie摘要t情绪显示交易者持有净多头澳元/美元 - 该比率为+3.25（交易者持有的比例为76.5％） - 看跌看跌

• Traders have remained net-long since July 19th; price has moved 3.6% lower since then

  交易员自7月19日以来一直保持净多头;此后价格已下跌3.6％

• Long positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 2.4% lower from last week

  多头头寸比昨天增加1.8％，比上周减少2.4％

• Short positions are 16.4% higher than yesterday and 1.0% lower from last week

  空头头寸比昨天增加16.4％，比上周减少1.0％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. From a sentiment standpoint, the recent changes in positioning warn that the current AUD/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，而且交易商净多头意味着澳元/美元价格可能继续下跌。然而，与上周相比，交易商净持续时间较短。从情绪的角度来看，最近的定位变化警告称，尽管交易者保持净多头，但目前的澳元/美元价格趋势可能很快反转走高。

Relevant Australia / US Data Releases

相关的澳大利亚/美国数据发布

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

经济日历 - 最新的经济发展和即将发生的事件风险。

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Active Trade Setups

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• Oil Price Outlook: Crude Spills into Support – WTI Trade Levels

  油价展望：原油溢出支撑 - WTI贸易水平

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  加拿大元价格走势图：美元兑加元突破六周高位

• Japanese Yen Price Chart: USD/JPY Breakout Trade Levels for FOMC

  日元价格走势图：美元/日元FOMC突破交易水平

• Euro Price Chart: EUR/USD Reverses Course Post-ECB – Trade Levels

  欧元价格走势图：欧元/美元反转欧洲央行后的课程 - 贸易水平