European Equities: The FED Rate Cut and Stats to Provide Direction

Economic Calendar:Thursday, 1st August

经济日历：8月1日星期四

• Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

  西班牙制造业采购经理人指数（7月）

• Italian Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

  意大利制造业PMI（7月）

• French Manufacturing PMI (Jul) Final

  法国制造业PMI（7月）决赛

• German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) Final

  德国制造业PMI（7月）决赛

• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul) Final

  欧元区制造业采购经理人指数（7月）决赛

Friday, 2nd August

8月2日星期五

• Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

  欧元区零售业销售额（月比）

The Majors

专业

The European majors closed out the last day of the month in the green, with the DAX30 leading the way, rising by 0.34%. The CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 saw more modest gains of 0.14% and 0.17% respectively.

欧洲主要交易日以绿色结束了当月的最后一天，DAX30领涨，上涨0.34％。 CAC40和EuroStoxx600分别小幅上涨0.14％和0.17％。

A bearish week left the majors mixed for July, with the DAX and CAC falling by 1.69% and by 0.36% respectively in the month. The EuroStoxx600 bucked the trend, rising by 0.23% in spite of a 1.27% loss for the current week.

看跌的一周使得大联盟7月份涨跌互现，DAX和CAC分别下跌1.69％和本月分别为0.36％。尽管本周亏损1.27％，但EuroStoxx600仍然逆转上涨0.23％。

The moves on the day came ahead of the FEDs interest rate decision that caught the U.S markets off guard later in the day. A hawkish rate cut led to the last day of the month fall in the U.S majors.

当天的举动是在FED利率决定陷入困境之前发生的。当天晚些时候美国市场措手不及。强硬的降息导致美国大满贯赛月的最后一天下降。

The StatsOut of France

法国的统计数据

According to Insee,

根据Insee，

Consumer prices rose by 0.2%, month-on-month, which was worse than a forecasted 0.3%. Prices rose by 0.3% in June. Baseline consumer prices fell by 0.2% in July, month-on-month, which was in line with forecast. The Harmonized Index for Consumer prices had risen by 0.3% in June.

消费者价格环比上涨0.2％，低于预期的0.3％。 6月价格上涨0.3％。 7月份基准消费者物价指数环比下跌0.2％，与预期一致。 6月份消费者价格协调指数上涨了0.3％。

Out of Germany

德国之外

According to Destatis, retail sales jumped by 3.5% in June, which was well ahead of a forecasted 0.5% rise. Sales had fallen by 0.6% in May.

根据Destatis的数据，零售额增长6月份增长3.5％，远远超过预测的0.5％。 5月份销售额下降了0.6％。

Germanys unemployment rate held steady at 5% in July, which was in line with forecast. According to Destatis,

7月德国失业率稳定在5％，符合预期。根据Destatis的说法，

• Unemployment increased by 1K, which was better than a forecasted 2K rise. Unemployment had fallen by 1K in June.

  失业率增加了1K，这比预测的2K增长要好。 6月失业率下降了1K。

Out of the Eurozone

Out o欧元区

According to Eurostat:

根据欧盟统计局的数据：

The Eurozone economy grew by 1.1% in the 2nd quarter, following a 1.2% rise in the 1st. Economists had forecast a 1.0% year-on-year growth. Quarter-on-quarter, the economy grew by 0.2%, following 0.4% growth in the 1st quarter. Economists had forecast 0.2% growth.

欧元区第二季度经济增长1.2％后增长1.1％第一个。经济学家此前预计同比增长1.0％。与第一季度相比，经济增长0.2％，第一季度增长0.4％。经济学家预测增长0.2％。

On the labor market front, the Eurozones unemployment rate slipped from a revised 7.6% to 7.5% in June. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to come in at 7.5%.

在劳动力市场方面，欧元区6月失业率从修正后的7.6％下滑至7.5％。经济学家曾预测失业率将达到7.5％。

On the inflation front, the Eurozone‘s July annual rate of core inflation came in at 0.9%, easing from 1.1% in June, according to prelim figures. The Eurozone’s annual rate of inflation came in at 1.1%, easing from 1.3% in June.

在通胀方面，欧元区7月份的核心通胀率为0.9％，从1.1％缓解根据预先数据，6月份。欧元区的年通货膨胀率为1.1％，从6月的1.3％放缓。

Out of the U.S

离开美国

From outside of the Eurozone, economic data out of the U.S was also of influence on the day. ADP nonfarm employment rose by 156K in July, which was better than a forecasted 150K rise. In June, nonfarm employment rose by an upwardly revised 112K.

来自在欧元区之外，美国以外的经济数据也对当天产生了影响。 7月份ADP非农就业人数增加了156,000，好于预测的15万人口增长。 6月，非农就业人数上升了向上修正的112K。

On the monetary policy front, the FED cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as had been forecasted. A less dovish than anticipated FED Chair weighed on the U.S majors while fuelling a Greenback rally in response. The European markets were closed at the time of the FED interest rate decision.

在货币政策方面，美联储将利率降低了25个基点，正如预测的那样。与美联储主席相比，美联储主席的温和程度低于预期，同时为美元反弹做出了贡献。在美联储利率决定时，欧洲市场已经关闭。

The Market Movers

市场推动者

From the DAX, the auto sector saw red on Wednesday, with Continental and Daimler falling by 1.14% and by 0.96% respectively. BMW and Volkswagen saw more modest losses of 0.88% and 0.45% respectively. From the banking sector, Deutsche Bank was amongst the best performers, rallying by 2.37%. Commerzbank bucked the trend, however, falling by 0.13% on the day.

来自DAX ，汽车行业周三出现红色，大陆和戴姆勒分别下跌1.14％和0.96％。宝马和大众汽车的亏损分别为0.88％和0.45％。来自银行业的德意志银行表现最佳，涨幅为2.37％。然而，德国商业银行逆势而上，当日下跌0.13％。

From the CAC, it was also a bullish end to the month for bank stocks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rose by 1.59% and by 1.27% respectively. Soc Gen saw a more modest gain of 0.68%. Renault joined the German autos in the red, falling by 0.63%.

来自CAC ，这也是银行当月的看涨结束股票。法国巴黎银行和法国农业信贷银行分别上涨1.59％和1.27％。 Soc Gen的涨幅为0.68％。雷诺加入了德国汽车的红色，坠落的b0.63％。

The Day Ahead

未来一天

{32}

Its a relatively busy day ahead on the economic data front.

{32}

Economic data due out of the Eurozone include July manufacturing PMI numbers out of Spain and Italy. While finalized manufacturing PMIs out of France and Germany will unlikely have an influence, the Eurozones manufacturing PMI will also have an impact on the day.

欧元区的经济数据包括西班牙和意大利的7月制造业PMI数据。尽管法国和德国的最终制造业采购经理人指数不太可能产生影响，但欧元区制造业采购经理人指数也将对当天产生影响。

While the stats will provide direction, we can expect the majors to respond to the FEDs interest rate cut and the FOMC rate statement.

虽然统计数据将提供方向，但我们可以期望大公司对美联储的降息和联邦公开市场委员会的利率声明作出回应。

Out of the U.S, the markets preferred ISM manufacturing PMI will also have an impact on the majors.

在美国之外，市场首选的ISM制造业采购经理人指数也将对大型企业产生影响。

On the corporate earnings front, BMW, Infineon Technologies AG, and Siemens AG will also have an impact on the day.

在企业盈利方面，宝马，英飞凌科技股份公司和西门子股份公司也将对当天产生影响。

At the time of writing, the DAX futures was down by 20 points, while the Dow Mini was down by 6 points.

在撰写本文时，DAX期货下跌了20点，而道琼斯指数下跌了6点。