GBP/USD Downtrend Targets March 2017 Low, No-Deal Brexit Fears Boil

Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points

亚太市场公开谈话要点

• British Pound tumbled on rising fears of a “no-deal” Brexit

  由于担心“不”，英镑贬值-deal英国退欧

• GBP/USD took out support as it looks to March 2017 lows

  英镑兑美元下跌支撑位于2017年3月低点

• Japanese Yen may look past BoJ for more prominent items

  日元可能会超越日本央行寻找更为突出的项目

Not sure where the British Pound is heading next？ Check out the third quarter British Pound fundamental and technical forecast!

不确定英国人在哪里英镑将接下来？查看第三季度英镑的基本面和技术预测！

Brexit Woes Keep Pressuring GBP/USD

出现英国退欧危机保持压力英镑/美元

The British Pound accelerated its selloff from Friday, tumbling against its major counterparts on Monday and falling the most against the US Dollar over the course of 24 hours since November 2018. Similar to why it fell last week, the fundamental backdrop is related to rising concerns that the United Kingdom could crash out of the European Union on the October 31deadline without a divorce agreement, or “no-deal”.

英镑从周五开始加速抛售，周一跌破主要货币，自2018年11月以来的24小时内兑美元跌幅最大。与此类似上周下跌，基本背景与英国可能在10月31日没有离婚协议或“无交易”的情况下可能在10月31日之前从欧盟崩溃的担忧有关。

The GBP/USD selloff picked up pace after UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said that the “undemocratic” Irish Backstop - a sticking point in UK-EU negotiations - “must go”. The EU has made it loud and clear that this is a non-negotiable term in the Brexit process. As Prime Minister Boris Johnson later added that the backstop “must be removed” to avoid a no-deal, Sterling continued its plunge.

英镑/美元抛售p英国外交大臣多米奇拉布表示，“不民主的”爱尔兰支持 - 英国 - 欧盟谈判的一个关键点 - “必须走向”，这一步骤加快了步伐。欧盟已经明确表示，这是英国退欧过程中不可谈判的条款。正如总理鲍里斯·约翰逊后来补充称，“必须取消”支持以避免无成交，英镑继续暴跌。

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British Pound Technical Analysis

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Taking a closer look at the British Pound, we saw it take out near-term support at 1.2366 which is the April 2017 lows. This has opened the door to perhaps reaching March 2017 lows while descending channel resistance from late April – parallel red lines on the chart below - guide it lower in the medium term.

仔细观察英镑，我们看到它在1.2366（即2017年4月的低点）获得近期支撑。这打开了可能达到2017年3月低点的大门，同时从4月下旬开始下行通道阻力 - 下图中的平行红线 - 在中期内引导它走低。

GBP/USD – Chart of the Day

GBP / USD - 每日图表

GBPUSD Chart by TradingView

按交易视图划分的GBPUSD图表

Against a basket of its top four liquid counterparts, the highly-liquid US Dollar outperformed and extended its advance after clearing key resistance last week, as anticipated. Meanwhile, pro-risk currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars aimed cautiously lower with the bulk of their underperformance occurring during the first half of the session.

篮其中四大流动性同业中，流动性高的美元在上周清理关键阻力后表现优于并延续涨势，如预期。与此同时，澳大利亚和新西兰元等风险较高的货币在上半年表现不佳的情况下谨慎走低。

Tuesdays Asia Pacific Trading Session

周二的亚太地区交易时段

S&P 500 futures are little changed heading into Tuesdays Asia Pacific session after a mixed performance on Wall Street. By the end of Monday, the US benchmark stock index closed 0.16% to the downside. It was led lower by financials, particularly bank shares. While information technology stocks initially declined, they ended the session little changed.

标准普尔500指数期货在华尔街表现喜忧参半后进入周二的亚太时段几乎没有变化。截至周一，美国基准股指收跌0.16％。金融股尤其是银行股走低。虽然信息科技股最初下跌，但他们在会议结束时几乎没有变化。

Some hesitation in financial markets could be forgiven given the plethora of event risk this week such as the Fed. Over the next few hours, and perhaps during a window between 2:45 – 3:30 GMT we will get the next Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement. However, no change in their policy tools are anticipated with the focus placed on their forward guidance and could make for a muted reaction in the Japanese Yen.

鉴于本周过多的事件风险，如美联储，金融市场的一些犹豫可能会被原谅。在接下来的几个小时内，也许在格林威治标准时间2点45分至3点30分的窗口期间，我们将获得下一个日本央行货币政策公告。但是，预计他们的政策工具不会改变，重点放在他们的前瞻性指引上，可能会使日元的反应平淡。