GBP Technical Outlook: EUR/GBP to Resistance, GBP/USD Plummets

GBPUSD, EURGBP, British Pound Talking Points:

GBPUSD，EURGBP，英镑谈话要点：

• The British Pound has opened the week with a break down to fresh two-year-lows, plummeting below the 1.2400 level that had previously helped to hold support.

  英镑开盘一周突破至新的两年低点，跌至先前曾帮助支持的1.2400水平。

• It‘s a big week for GBP/USD as rate decisions take place in both the UK and the US. Wednesday brings what is expected to be the FOMC’s first rate cut in over a decade; and Super Thursday takes place less than 24 hours later when the BoE provided updated projections and a press conference to go along with their rate decision. Also on the economic calendar is the Non-Farm Payrolls release on Friday, making for a busy latter-portion of the week for the GBP.

  这是一个重要的一周对于英镑/美元，因为利率决定在英国和美国都有。周三将带来FOMC十多年来首次降息的预期;超级星期四发生在不到24小时之后，英国央行提供了更新的预测和新闻发布会以及他们的利率决定。同样在经济日历上的是周五非农就业人数的释放，这使得本周英镑的后半部分变得繁忙。

GBPUSD Plummets to Fresh Two-Year-Lows Ahead of FOMC, BoE Super Thursday

英镑兑美元下跌至新鲜市场 - 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）之前的年初至今，英国央行超级周四

It‘s been a rough start to the week for the British Pound as the currency has been slammed-lower to start this week’s trade. While much of the economic worlds attention is focused squarely on Washington DC for the Wednesday FOMC rate decision, threats of No-Deal Brexit have pushed GBP/USD to its lowest spot rate since March of 2017. As discussed over the past two weeks, GBPUSD has been one of the more attractive long-USD scenarios. As the Greenback has continued to gain, bearish prognostications around the Pound have helped GBP/USD to remain aggressively-offered over the past month.

由于货币受到猛烈抨击，英镑本周开局不利 - 本周开始交易。尽管经济领域的大部分注意力都集中在华盛顿特区的周三FOMC利率决定上，但是无政府退欧的威胁已将英镑/美元推至2017年3月以来的最低现货价格。正如过去两周所讨论的那样，英镑兑美元一直是更具吸引力的长期美元情景之一。随着美元继续上涨，围绕英镑的悲观预测帮助英镑兑美元在过去一个月内继续积极提供。

GBP/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

英镑/美元四小时价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

Super Thursday Awaits

超级星期四等待

Less than 24 hours after that Federal Reserve rate decision and another item of importance comes up on the economic calendar for the British Pound, and that‘s the Super Thursday rate decision. This is when the Bank of England will offer updated projections and a press conference to go along with the rate decision itself and this is often where markets can gain some insight to project potential policy action from the bank. Of note, this will be the first BoE rate decision since the Boris Johnson win, so it’ll be interesting to hear the banks take on what might need to happen in the event that No-Deal Brexit continues as a potential outcome. Likely, we will hear the BoE take on a very dovish tone.

美联储利率决定后不到24小时另一个重要的项目出现在英镑的经济日历上，这就是超级星期四的利率决定。这时英格兰银行将提供更新的预测和新闻发布会，以配合利率决策本身，这通常是市场可以获得一些洞察力来预测银行的潜在政策行动。值得注意的是，这将是自鲍里斯·约翰逊获胜以来首次出现的英国央行利率决定，所以听到银行承担在无政府退欧继续作为潜在结果的情况下可能需要发生的事情将会很有趣。可能，我们会听到英国央行采取非常温和的语气。

On a longer-term basis, this can be a tough area to chase that recent bearish breakout. From the weekly chart, traders can zoom out to see a relative lack of price action in the current area and nothing since April of 2017 when prices rose above 1.2500 and didnt look back, until a couple of weeks ago, that is.

从长期来看，这可能是一个艰难的过程追逐近期看跌突破的区域。从周线图中，交易者可以缩小以查看当前区域相对缺乏价格行为，并且自2017年4月价格上涨至1.2500以上并没有回头，直到几周前，这是没有什么。

GBP/USD Weekly Price Chart

英镑/美元每周价格图表

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Chart prepared by James Stanley

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GBPUSD Bearish Potential

英镑兑美元看跌潜力

At this point, traders are left with a couple of options to work with the short-side of this theme. Either chase the already well-developed breakout; or wait for a pullback to some element of resistance that could be used for stop placement. The former of those approaches appears imprudent given how stretched the bearish theme already is; but below, I look into two areas of possible lower-high resistance that could re-open the door for bearish exposure in the pair ahead of Wednesdays FOMC rate decision.

此时，交易者可以选择使用这个主题的短边。要么追逐已经发展完善的突破;或者等待一些可用于止损位置的阻力元素的回调。鉴于看跌主题已经延伸，这些方法的前者似乎是不谨慎的;但在下面，我将调查两个可能存在较低阻力位的区域，这可能会在周三FOMC利率决定之前重新打开该区域的看跌风险。

Current support appears to be showing around the 1.2250 psychological level, and prior support around 1.2400 could be of interest for lower-high resistance. The quandary with that latter level is that it would require a 130+ pip bounce to come into play, and one must ask in that scenario if the bearish backdrop on the pair remains as attractive. A bit closer is another potential zone of interest around 1.2340. This area had a quick support/resistance check earlier today and may soon become usable.

目前的支撑位出现将在1.2250附近展示心理水平，以及1.2400附近的先前支撑可能对低 - 高阻力感兴趣。后一个级别的窘境在于它需要130+点的反弹才能发挥作用，并且必须在这种情况下询问该货币对的看跌背景是否仍然具有吸引力。更接近的是1.2340附近的另一个潜在的利益区。该区域今天早些时候进行了快速支撑/阻力检查，可能很快就可以使用。

GBPUSD Hourly Price Chart

GBPUSD每小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

GBP Reversal Potential

英镑逆转潜力

For those that‘d like to fade this recent round of GBP-weakness, EUR/GBP could remain attractive. The cross-pair has taken advantage of this recent rush of Sterling weakness to catapult up to a zone of resistance that’s already twice-turned around bullish advances in the pair over the past year. This takes place around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-August 2017 bullish run. This scenario would also have the luxury of picking on a potentially-weak Euro with the prospect of looser policy and, perhaps even future QE outlays from the European Central Bank.

对于那些想要褪色的人最近一轮英镑疲软，欧元兑英镑可能依然具有吸引力。这对交叉对利用了最近英镑疲软的冲击，推动了一个阻力区域，这个区域在过去一年已经两次转为看涨。这发生在2017年4月至8月看涨的23.6％斐波纳契折线附近。这种情况也可以摒弃潜在疲软的欧元，因为政策可能更宽松，甚至可能来自欧洲央行的未来QE支出。

EUR/GBP Weekly Price Chart

EUR / GBP每周价格表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写