Further Sterling (GBP) Weakness Likely if Johnson Becomes PM

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

• Tory leadership winner to be announced at 11.00 UK time

  保守党领袖获胜者将于英国时间11点宣布

• GBP will continue to experience sell-off pressure if Boris Johnson is confirmed to be the new PM, Jeremy Hunt victory could ignite a surge in GBP

  如果鲍里斯·约翰逊被确认为新任总理，英镑将继续遭遇抛售压力，杰里米·亨特的胜利可能会引发英镑飙升

• GBPUSD eyeing March 2017 lows and EURGBP could breach the 0.90 psychological line

  英镑兑美元盯上2017年3月的低点，而欧元兑英镑可能突破0.90心理线

With the winner of the Tory leadership contest and new Prime Minister due to be announced today we may see some renewed signs of weakness from the pound if Boris Johnson is confirmed as the new PM. GBPUSD has continued its steady decline since Friday, falling another 0.2% at the open of the European session to 1.2433.

随着鲍里斯·约翰逊被确认为新任总理，今天将宣布保守党领导力竞赛和新总理的获胜者，我们可能会看到英镑再次出现疲软迹象。自周五以来英镑兑美元继续稳步下跌，在欧洲时段开盘时又下跌0.2％至1.2433。

The market reaction in GBP will depend largely on the chosen candidates guidance on Brexit. With Boris Johnson almost certain to be chosen as the new Prime Minister, some cabinet ministers will allegedly resign if he is elected as new PM. The latest to do so is Chancellor Philip Hammond who said that a no-deal Brexit is “not something I could ever sign up to”.

英镑的市场反应将主要取决于所选择的候选人指引Brexit。由于鲍里斯·约翰逊几乎肯定会被选为新首相，一些内阁部长如果被当选为新总理，将据称辞职。最近这样做的是总理菲利普哈蒙德，他说，一笔无交易的英国脱欧“不是我可以签署的东西”。

Even though markets are already pricing in the chance of a no-deal Brexit if Boris Johnson is elected as new PM, as can be seen by the continued weakness in GBP in the weeks leading up to today, we can expect the pound to suffer further losses if Johnson is announced as the winner of the leadership contest. The result will be announced at 11.00 UK time. GBPUSD may slip below new lows of 1.2382 recorded last week heading towards April 2017 lows of 1.2364. Further downside pressure can lure sellers to 1.2180, hovering near March 2017 lows. EURGBP would continue to push higher bringing the pair closer to parity, nearing the psychological level of 0.90 where it is likely to face resistance from stops and option expiries.

尽管市场已经定价如果鲍里斯·约翰逊当选为新任首席执行官，那么英国脱欧的可能性很大，从今天前几周英镑持续疲软可以看出，如果约翰逊被宣布为获胜者，我们可以预期英镑将遭受进一步的损失领导力竞赛。结果将于英国时间11点公布。英镑兑美元可能跌破上周触及的新低1.2382，即2017年4月的低点1.2364。进一步的下行压力可以吸引卖家至1.2180，徘徊在2017年3月低点附近。欧元兑英镑将继续走高，使该货币对更接近平价，接近0.90的心理水平，可能会受到止损和期权到期的阻力。

PRICE CHART: GBPUSD Daily Time-Frame (Sep 2016 – July 2019)

价格表：英镑兑美元每日时限（2016年9月 - 2019年7月）

If in an unexpected twist Jeremy Hunt were to be elected as the new Prime Minister, markets would be shocked but to the upside, with expectations of a surge in GBP and domestic stocks, with GBPUSD inching closer to 1.2600 level last seen at the beginning of July.

如果出现意外扭转Jeremy Hunt将被选为新任总理，市场将受到震惊但上行，预期英镑和国内股市将飙升，英镑兑美元汇率将于7月初接近1.2600水平。