RBC: Gilead should buy Otezla from Celgene, aiding Bristol-Myers deal

Bristol-Meyers Squibb struck a $74 billion deal in January to acquire the drug company Celgene.

To get regulators to sign off on the deal, Celgene plans to divest an anti-inflammatory drug called Otezla.

Wall Street analysts are trying to figure out which pharma companies are likely to acquire Otezla. They've named Gilead, Amgen, and Johnson & Johnson.

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Bristol-Myers Squibb struck a $74 billion deal at the start of the year to acquire the drug company Celgene. To help get the deal approved, Celgene plans to divest an anti-inflammatory drug called Otezla.

Wall Street analysts have made a list of companies likely to acquire Otezla, with the most notable being Gilead, Amgen, and Johnson & Johnson.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Brian Abrahams said in a research note dated Thursday that buying Otezla would be beneficial for Gilead, as long as the company doesn't overpay for the drug. Abrahams estimates Otezla to be worth roughly $8 billion, and said Gilead has the cash available to make the purchase. Abrahams said Gilead shouldn't pay more than $9.6 billion for the drug, based on his analysis of the treatment's potential to generate profits.

The RBC note emphasizes that while Gilead just spent $5.1 billion on a partnership with the Belgian biotech company Galapagos, the company finished the first quarter of 2019 with $30 billion in cash, allowing for additional purchases to be feasible.

Read more: Inside Gilead's unusual $5.1 billion partnership with a Belgian biotech, which was codenamed 'Project Eagles' and was sealed the night of a glitzy anniversary party

Abrahams said Otezla would fit well with Gilead's other efforts in treating inflammation. Otezla treats a skin condition called plaque psoriasis by fighting inflammation inside cells. Gilead and Galapagos are working on another anti-inflammatory drug called filgotinib and would need to build out operations to promote the drug. Because of this, Abrahams' believes 65% of the selling, general and administrative costs related to Otezla would have to be paid by Gilead regardless.

On the other hand, Mizuho Securities analyst Salim Syed said that Otezla isn't a good fit for Gilead, because it wouldn't fit with the company's merger-and-acquisition philosophy. He estimates the value of Otezla at about $5 billion to $10 billion.

He said in a July 17 research note that the most likely buyer is Amgen, with the second most likely being J&J. Syed noted that Amgen's top drug Enbrel, which also treats conditions like arthritis and plaque psoriasis, is undergoing litigation. He said acquiring Otezla could help the company build out its pipeline.

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J&J already has several drugs for similar conditions, meaning that adding Otezla could help the company expand its offerings. Because the drug is taken by mouth instead of injected, it could help diversify J&J portfolio, Syed said.

布里斯托尔 - 梅耶斯斯奎布（Bristol-Meyers Squibb）1月份以740亿美元的价格收购了制药公司Celgene。为了让监管机构签署协议，Celgene计划剥离一种名为Otezla的抗炎药物。华尔街分析师正试图找出哪些制药公司可能收购Otezla。他们命名为吉利德，安进和强生。 点击此处查看更多BI故事。今年年初，百时美施贵宝公司（Bristol-Myers Squibb）以740亿美元成交收购制药公司Celgene。为了帮助获得批准，Celgene计划剥离一种叫做Otezla的消炎药。华尔街分析师已经列出了一些可能收购Otezla的公司，其中最着名的是Gilead，Amgen和强生公司。 。在加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师布莱恩·亚伯拉罕斯（Brian Abrahams）周四发表的研究报告中称，购买奥特兹拉（Otezla）对吉利德来说是有益的，只要该公司没有为这种药物多付钱。 Abrahams估计Otezla价值约80亿美元，并表示Gilead有现金可用于购买。亚伯拉罕说，根据他对治疗产生利润潜力的分析，吉利德不应该支付超过96亿美元的药物。 RBC的说明强调，虽然吉利德仅花费51亿美元与比利时生物技术公司Galapagos建立合作伙伴关系，但该公司在2019年第一季度以300亿美元现金完成，允许额外购买。 阅读更多内容：吉利德与比利时生物技术公司达成的不同寻常的51亿美元合作伙伴关系，该公司代号为“老鹰项目”，并在一个光彩夺目的周年派对之夜被封存。亚伯拉罕说，奥特兹拉将与吉利德的其他努力相吻合。治疗炎症。 Otezla通过对抗细胞内的炎症来治疗称为斑块状银屑病的皮肤病。吉利德和加拉帕戈斯正在开发另一种名为filgotinib的抗炎药物，需要建立促进该药物的手术。因此，Abrahams'相信65％的销售额，无论如何，必须由吉利德支付与奥特兹拉有关的一般和行政费用。 另一方面，瑞穗证券分析师Salim Syed表示，Otezla不适合吉利德，因为它不符合公司的并购理念。他估计Otezla的价值约为50亿至100亿美元。他在7月17日的一份研究报告中表示，最有可能的买家是Amgen，第二大可能是J＆J。赛义德指出，Amgen的顶级药物Enbrel正在接受诉讼，该药物也治疗关节炎和斑块状银屑病等病症。他说，收购Otezla可以帮助公司建立自己的管道。不要错过医疗保健新闻。订阅Dispensed，我们关于制药，生物技术和医疗保健的每周时事通讯。强生已经有几种类似条件的药物，这意味着添加Otezla可以帮助公司扩大产品范围。 Syed说，因为药物是通过口服而不是注射，它可以帮助J＆J组合多样化。