WTI Crude Oil Price Outlook: Pullback to Support, Can Bulls Hold？

WTI Crude Oil Price Talking Points:

WTI原油价格谈话要点：

• WTI crude oil prices caught a boost this week as production from the Gulf of Mexico cut back on the heels of the brewing Tropical Storm Barry.

  本周WTI原油价格上涨墨西哥湾的产量在酝酿的热带风暴巴里之后减少。

• Oil prices had previously held on to a bearish tonality; and price action didnt re-cross above the 60-level until yesterday. The big question now is how aggressively this storm might further constrain production; or whether the bearish theme might come back in.

  油价之前一直保持看跌的态度;直到昨天，价格行动才重新超过60水平。现在最大的问题是这场风暴可能会如何进一步限制生产;或者看跌主题是否会重新出现。

Crude Oil Prices Bounce

原油价格反弹

{6}

Crude oil prices have continued to show recovery so far in Q3, and this follows a bearish first couple of days to the fresh quarter after sellers posed a reaction at a very key resistance level. That resistance zone runs around the 60 psychological level; and this came into play in the last week of June while helping to hold the highs through the July open. After a quick bearish move stopped short of crossing the 56 level, buyers came back, helping to elicit a topside push back-above that vaulted area of 60 on the charts and soon creating a fresh seven-week-high.

{6}{7}

Yesterdays fresh seven-week-high has so far taken pause at a Fibonacci level of interest, as the price of 60.89 is the 23.6% retracement of the December-April major move.

{7}

WTI Crude Oil Four-Hour Price Chart

WTI原油四小时价格图表

{9}

Chart prepared by James Stanley

{9}

Strength Driven by Supply Fears with Brewing Storm in the Gulf of Mexico

供应恐惧与酿造驱动的强度墨西哥湾的季节性问题

At the source of this recent bullish move has been a threatening weather formation brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. This week saw producers in the area cut production by more than one million barrels per day, or more than 53% of their output as Tropical Storm Barry bears down on the Louisiana coast. The storm is expected to make landfall on Saturday, which could further constrain production through next week, and this presents somewhat of a wild card to oil traders as its not yet possible to know just how much further disruption may be in the cards. Prospects for continued topside in crude oil prices appears to be at least somewhat linked to how aggressively this storm comes in.

近期看涨的消息来源是墨西哥湾正在形成威胁性的天气形成。本周，由于热带风暴巴里在路易斯安那州海岸遭受破坏，该地区的生产商每天减产超过100万桶，或超过其产量的53％。预计这场风暴将在周六登陆，这可能会进一步限制下周的产量，这对石油交易商来说有点外卡，因为它还不知道卡片中可能会有多大的破坏。原油价格持续上行的前景似乎至少在某种程度上与这场风暴的积极程度有关。

From a technical perspective – the big question is whether that prior zone of resistance around the 60-handle can hold as support. This zone runs from the Fibonacci level at 59.64 up to the 60 level, and a hold of support here through next weeks open could keep the door open for short-term bullish strategies targeting the confluent zone that runs from 62.84-63.10.

从技术角度来看 - 最大的问题是，之前的区域是否是60手柄周围的阻力可以作为支撑。该区域从斐波那契水平59.64一直上升至60水平，并且在未来几周开盘持有支撑位，可以为从62.84-63.10开始的汇合区域的短期看涨策略敞开大门。

WTI Crude Oil Eight Hour Price Chart

WTI原油8小时价格走势图

{14}

Chart prepared by James Stanley

{14}

Crude Oil – Bearish Strategies

原油 - 看跌策略

Ahead of the July ramp, crude oil prices continued to trade with a bearish overtone. Even an extension of production cuts combined with a flare of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran were unable to push prices above the 60-handle. It wasnt until news of the brewing storm came into play that bulls got back in-charge to push prices up to a fresh high.

在7月份的崛起之前，原油价格继续以看跌的泛音交易。即使延长减产以及美国和伊朗之间地缘政治紧张局势的爆发，也无法将价格推高至60手以上。直到酝酿风暴的消息发挥作用，多头才重新将价格推高至新的高点。

This presents a fairly interesting backdrop for short-side swing setups, particularly if the damage from the oncoming storm passes without creating much further complication with Gulf production. Today‘s non-completed daily bar is showing as a doji following two days of strength; and given that this doji comes in with respect of the Fibonacci resistance looked at above, the door can remain open for bearish setups in crude oil. For additional confirmation, traders can look for a bearish move on Monday, which could create an evening star pattern on the chart. Prices pushing back-below the 59.64 level after next week’s open will help to fill that formation in; and that can re-open the door to short-side targets around the 57.50 and 55 levels on the chart.

这为短边提供了一个相当有趣的背景摆动装置，特别是如果即将到来的风暴造成的损坏通过，而不会对海湾生产产生更多的复杂性。今天的在完成日常酒吧后，两天的力量显示为十字星;考虑到上面所见的斐波那契阻力位，这个十字星的门是可以保持开放的，原油看跌。为了进一步确认，交易者可以在周一寻找看跌行情，这可能会在图表上形成一个晚上的星形图案。在下周开盘后价格回落至59.64以下将有助于填补该形态;这可以重新打开图表上57.50和55水平附近的短边目标的大门。

WTI Crude Oil Daily Price Chart

WTI原油每日价格走势图

{19}

Chart prepared by James Stanley