GBPUSD Outlook: Risk of Bearish Breakdown on Flash Crash Trendline Break

GBPUSD Analysis and News

英镑兑美元分析和新闻

• GBP Remains Soft as Service Sector Nears Stagnation

  GBP保持柔软作为服务扇区已覆盖近滞

• GBPUSD Outlook: Flash Crash Trendline Holds for Now

  GBPUSD展望：闪存崩溃趋势线存放立即对

  {7} GBPUSD展望：闪存崩溃趋势线存放立即对 {7}

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Check out our Fundamental and Technical Q3 forecast guide for GBPUSD

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GBP Remains Soft as Service Sector Nears Stagnation

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GBP remains on defensive across the board with GBPUSD hovering around session lows, while EURGBP continues to edge higher as UK services PMI dropped to 50.2, missing expectations of 51. Consequently, the composite figure fell into contractionary territory at 49.7, which marked the lowest reading since the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum. In turn, IHS Markit stated that the combined PMI surveys indicate that Q2 growth could show a contraction of 0.1%. As such, this is likely to confirm BoE Governor Carneys recent comments that Q2 growth is set to be considerably weaker. Thus, the outlook for the Pound remains tilted on the downside, particularly with the Bank of England providing a more cautious outlook. Of note, the next GDP release is scheduled for July 10th, however, keep in mind that this is a monthly reading for May.

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GBPUSD Outlook: Flash Crash Trendline Holds for Now

As political and economic risks keep the Pound on the backfoot, the trendline stemming from the Sterling October 2016 flash has continued to support the currency. However, with downside pressures continuing to mount, eyes are on for a break below, which could exacerbate further losses in the pair with a move towards the 1.25 handle possible, before the YTD low (1.2435)

由于政治和经济风险使英镑保持在后脚，因2016年10月英镑下跌引发的趋势线继续支持该货币。然而，随着下行压力继续上升，目前处于突破位置，这可能加剧该货币对的进一步下跌，在年初至今低点（1.2435）

GBPUSD PRICE CHART:DAILY TIME FRAME (Sep 18 – Jul 19)

之前可能走向1.25。 } GBPUSD股价图：DAILY TIME FRAME（9月18日至7月19日）

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Chart by IG

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What Does Positioning Tell us About the Direction in GBPUSD？

定位是什么告诉我们方向n英镑兑美元？

Data shows 76.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.22 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29202; price has moved 2.6% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Jun 21 when GBPUSD traded near 1.27426. The number of traders net-long is 9.3% higher than yesterday and 14.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.1% lower than yesterday and 1.9% lower from last week.

数据显示，76.3％的交易者是净多头，交易者的多头比例为3.22比1.事实上，交易商自5月以来一直保持净多头06英镑兑美元汇率在1.29202附近交易;此后价格已下跌2.6％。交易商净多头的百分比现在是自6月21日英镑兑美元交易于1.27426附近以来的最高点。交易商净多头比昨天增加9.3％，比上周增加14.8％，而交易商净空头数比昨天减少11.1％，比上周减少1.9％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来看待市场情绪，而且交易者净多头表明英镑兑美元价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们更加强势英镑兑美元看跌逆势交易偏见。