EURUSD Retreat May be Mitigated by US Data - GBP Eyeing BoE

EURUSD FORECAST, US DURABLE GOODS ORDERS, BOE TALKS, RBNZ RECAP – TALKING POINTS

EURUSD预测，美国耐用品订单，BOE TALKS，RBNZ RECAP - TALKING POINTS

• EURUSD may get boost if US economic data underwhelms

  如果美国经济数据不足，欧元兑美元可能会受到提振

• If the data underperforms, it could fuel rate cut expectations

  如果数据表现不佳，则可能推动降息预期

• GBP traders will be watching for commentary from the BoE

  英镑交易者将关注英国央行的评论

APAC RECAP

APAC RECAP

Asia Pacific equities were a mixed bag while the FX market was showing traders expressing a modestly risk-on tilt. The Japanese Yen was down against most of its major counterparts while the New Zealand and Australian Dollars were hovering marginally higher. The biggest event risk today was the RBNZs decision to hold the OCR at 1.50 percent and the Kiwi ended higher despite signals of another cut down the road.

亚太股市涨跌互现外汇市场显示交易者表现出适度的风险倾斜。日元兑大多数主要货币下跌，而新西兰元和澳元兑美元小幅徘徊。今天最大的事件风险是新西兰央行决定将OCR维持在1.50％，并且尽管另一条道路被削减，新西兰元仍然走高。

US ECONOMIC DATA

美国经济数据

EURUSD traders will be closely watching the release of US Durable Goods Orders with preliminary numbers for May showing an estimate of a 0.2 percent contraction, marginally less severe than the previous -2.1 print. If the data underwhelms, it could fuel dovish expectations despite St. Luis Fed President James Bullards defusing commentary on future rate cuts, adding that a 50 basis point slash in July would be overdoing it.

欧元兑美元交易商将密切关注美国耐用品订单的发布情况，5月的初步数据显示收缩率估计为0.2％，略低于之前的-2.1。尽管圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·布拉德斯（James Bullards）对未来的降息进行了评论，但如果这些数据不足，可能会助长温和的预期，并补充称，7月份的50个基点削减将使其过度。

If this is the case, EURUSD may attempt to re-enter the 1.1388-1.1424 range if the US Dollar takes a big enough hit. Conversely, a surprise to the upside could cause the pair to fall around the 1.34 area. However, the long-term fundamental outlook suggests EURUSD will capitulate and resume its prior downtrend, though not necessarily to the same degree that it was before it broke out from under an 18-month descending ceiling.

如果是这种情况，如果美元受到足够大的打击，欧元兑美元可能会尝试重新进入1.1388-1.1424区间。相反，上行意外可能导致该货币对跌破1.34区域。然而，长期的基本面前景表明，欧元兑美元将投降并恢复其先前的下行趋势，但未必达到与18个月下行上限之前爆发的程度相同的程度。

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STERLING TRADERS EYE TALKS BY BoE OFFICIALS

通过英国政府官员对交易商进行谈话

Sterling traders will be carefully watching the commentary from Bank of England officials Jon Cunliffe, Silvana Tenreyro and Governor Mark Carney. The main topic of discussion will likely again revolve around Brexit, and their reassessment of the situation may cause capital flight from GBP – much like last week. Uncertainty about the EU-UK divorce continues to rise in light of the ongoing race for Prime Minister.

英镑交易员将仔细观察英格兰银行官员Jon Cunliffe，Silvana Tenreyro和州长Mark Carney的评论。讨论的主要议题可能会再次围绕英国退欧，而他们对这种情况的重新评估可能导致英镑资本外逃 - 就像上周一样。由于正在进行的总理竞选，欧盟 - 英国离婚的不确定性继续上升。

Boris Johnson is currently in the lead, and a decision of the winner will be announced during the week of July 22. The outlook has become considerably cloudier with potential storm clouds brewing on the horizon after the frontrunner pledged to get Britain out of the EU by October 31. He also added that Parliament is also ready to back a no-deal outcome; GBPUSD certainly felt the pain.

鲍里斯·约翰逊目前处于领先地位，并将宣布获胜者的决定7月22日这一周，前景变得更加阴霾，在领先者承诺在10月31日之前将英国赶出欧盟之后，潜在的风暴云正在酝酿之中。他还补充说，议会也准备支持无成交结果;英镑兑美元当然感受到了痛苦。

CHART OF THE DAY: EURUSD MAY ATTEMPT TO RETEST RESISTANCE IF US ECON DATA DISAPPOINTS

一天的图表：如果美国经济数据失踪，欧元兑美元可能会试图抵制抵抗